Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Predictions

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Updated: March 3, 2021

Francesco Molinari has been fantastic at Bay Hill, with four Top-10 finishes – including a victory in 2019 – and he is currently priced at just +2,800 to win this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

After diving into largely uncharted territory at last week’s World Golf Championships event at The Concession, the PGA Tour’s best and brightest will be all too pleased to see a familiar course greet them this week.

PGA Tour betting continues its jaunt through the great state of Florida at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, a fixture of the tour for more than 40 years. And while players went into last week’s event on a challenging Jack Nicklaus-designed course with little idea of what to expect, there are no secrets at this Palmer-inspired layout.

The golf odds are juicy, the field is robust, the number of former champs in action is plentiful and the scores should be low given the talent level of today’s players.

We preview the field, break down the course and give our best free golf picks, predictions and best bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge betting stats that matter

Gamblers are breathing a sigh of relief this week, going from having little historical data to being able to draw from 40+ years worth of tournament information. And this year’s event is shaping up to be a tale of two halves: Pre-tournament showers will slow things down and creating great scoring conditions, while weekend wind will make the final 36 holes look daunting.

Versatility will be the name of the game at Bay Hill. You’ll want players who can rack up the birdies in ideal conditions and also be able to handle the challenge of stiff weekend breezes. SG: Tee-to-Green will loom large this week, as will Driving Distance (the rough is far less punitive here than at the Concession) and SG: Approach (particularly from intermediate or long distances).

Arnold Palmer Invitational outright winner bets

Bay Hill has been kind to Rory McIlroy over the years—so it’s no surprise to see him atop the outright odds at +800. We’ll get into Rory’s resume here in a bit (spoiler alert), but let’s lay out the other challengers first. Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland are next at +1,200, with defending champion Tyrrell Hatton at +1,600, while Sungjae Im and Patrick Reed come in at +2,000.

Who will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational? Here’s our best guess:

Rory McIlroy (+800)

No player in this field has tamed Bay Hill like McIlroy, who is heavily favored for a reason. McIlroy leads the way in strokes per round gained at Bay Hill (plus-2.38), a major factor in him posting Top-6 finishes each of the past four trips here (including a victory in 2018). McIlroy is coming off a T6 at last week’s event and will almost certainly be in the running again here.

Francesco Molinari (+2,800)

Molinari might not have quite the same overall resume as McIlroy, but he has navigated Bay Hill with a similar level of dominance. He won this tournament in 2019, has three other Top 10s to his credit and has averaged 2.23 strokes gained in 24 career rounds at Bay Hill. His SG: Tee-to-Green game is also on point—he ranks 21st in that category on the PGA Tour this season.

Arnold Palmer Invitational matchup predictions

Tyrrell Hatton Over Viktor Hovland (+100)

Which version of Hatton will we get this weekend: the one that battled the breeze for a 2020 victory and finished fourth here in 2017…or the one that posted 69th- and 29th-place results in the two years in between? Bet on the former: He has back-to-back Top-30 results since returning to the PGA Tour, and he ranks 11th in SG: Approach heading into his latest trip to Orlando.

Louis Oosthuizen Over Tommy Fleetwood (+100)

Oosthuizen is showing vintage form with consecutive Top-12 results at his past two PGA Tour Appearances. And that recent form is superior to Fleetwood’s, with the English star having just one Top 25 on his resume in six events. Both players missed the cut at last year’s tournament—but with Oosthuizen showing better recent form, he’s a solid option in this pairing.

Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bets

Bryson DeChambeau Top-10 Finish (+137)

DeChambeau has the kind of game that can land him atop the leaderboard at any course—and Bay Hill is certainly no exception. The PGA Tour leader in driving distance finished fourth here last year and was the runner-up in 2018, and he has gained 2.19 strokes per round at this course over his career. As long as he avoids the hazards, he should cruise to a Top-10 result.

Lee Westwood to Miss Cut (+137)

Westwood hasn’t made much of an impact on either the PGA Tour or the European Tour this year, and all of the underlying metrics suggest he will struggle at Bay Hill. He ranks just inside the Top 200 in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Overall, while hitting just 58.7 percent of greens in regulation. Westwood missed the cut here last year and is a good bet to do so again this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational betting card

  • Rory McIlroy Outright (+800)
  • Francesco Molinari Outright (+2,800)
  • Tyrrell Hatton Over Viktor Hovland (+100)
  • Louis Oosthuizen Over Tommy Fleetwood (+100)
  • Bryson DeChambeau Top-10 Finish (+137)
  • Lee Westwood to Miss Cut (+137)

Where can I bet on the PGA?

You can bet on PGA odds at many online and casino sportsbooks, including PGA outrights, matchup bets, and other golf props. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on PGA odds in your area.


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