Bruins vs Islanders NHL Odds, Picks and Predictions June 5

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Updated: June 4, 2021

Game 3 had Nassau Coliseum rocking but it was the visiting Boston Bruins that skated away with the 2-1 OT victory against the New York Islanders. Boston leads the best-of-seven series 2-1.

Brad Marchand scored the winner on a weak sharp-angled shot that beat Semyon Varlamov barely four minutes into the extra frame. After a convincing Boston win in Game 1, Games 2 and 3 have both gone into overtime as this series is tightening up.

Oddsmakers have the Bruins as a -140 road NHL betting favorite with the total opening at 5.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Islanders for Saturday, June 5 (7:15 p.m. ET).

Bruins vs Islanders game info

Location: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Long Island, NY
Date: Saturday, June 5, 2021
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: CBC, NBC

Bruins vs Islanders odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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The line opened at Bruins -138/Islanders +115, with the total at 5. Early action favored Boston. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Bruins vs Islanders series odds

Bruins: -625
Islanders: +450

Bruins vs Islanders betting preview

Injuries

Bruins: Kevan Miller D (Out).
Islanders: Anders Lee F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 3-0-1 in the Bruins’ last three Saturday games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Islanders.

Moneyline pick

After Thursday’s OT victory, the Bruins have become a heavy -625 favorite to win the series. Boston may be a bit overpriced as New York has played competitively since Game 2 and had plenty of quality chances Thursday, despite scoring just a single goal. The shot total was low, but shots are overrated.

The Bruins did their best at sucking the life out of the old barn on Thursday. Varlamov allowed his fourth straight early first period goal on a Craig Smith snipe five minutes in. Boston would carry that 1-0 lead until the Islanders finally beat Tuukka Rask with five minutes remaining in the third.  

The Islanders lost nearly every metric (Corsi and Fenwick percentage, shots, scoring chance percentage) but split the xgoal percentage 50/50. Boston managed 41 shots on net, but the majority of their output was low- and medium-danger chances, while high-danger chances were evenly split. 

It will be tough for the Bruins to take two games in New York, as the Islanders finished the season with the third best home record in the NHL at 21-4-3. The Islanders are 2-1-1 at home in the playoffs and will look to finally take a first period lead, as they are 15-0-1 at home when leading after 20 minutes. The Bruins led after the first period in Games 2 and 3, while Game 1 was tied 1-1 after 20.

Varlamov needs to put his team in a better position early, as the veteran goalie has surrendered an early first period goal in each of his four playoff starts. The Islanders’ goalie finished the year with a 12-3-3 mark at home with a 1.87 goals against average and a .934 save percentage. If he can come up big and steal one game this series, it will be at home. 

With the Islanders showing they can crack down on Boston’s offensive chances and hold the big line in check (48.5 percent xgoal percentage for Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak in Game 3, per MoneyPuck), we’re liking them to split the series heading into Game 4. The Islanders finished Game 3 with 2.81 expected goals compared to Boston’s 1.94, despite being outshot 41-29. It’s quality over quantity and we have no problem riding a home dog Saturday night.

PREDICTION: New York (+120)

Covers NHL betting analysis

Over/Under pick

For the first time all season, the Islanders hit an Under with a total of 5 to push their season record on totals of 5 to 5-1-3 O/U.

The Islanders came out with their best offensive performance in Game 3 despite potting just a single goal. New York had more scoring chances and high-danger chances in Game 3 than its four-goal Game 3. These underlying numbers may be lost on some books that have given us a great price on the Over on Saturday.

Usually, when hitting the Over on a 5, we have to drink quite a bit of juice, but thanks to the 2-1 game on Thursday, the Over 5 can be had at an unheard of -110. Yes, Rask played outstanding in the 2-1 Bruins win, but New York should come out with their best performance of the series, as going down 3-1 heading back to TD Garden with a packed house is a death sentence.

Both power plays threw up donuts in Game 3 after going a combined 6 for 14 in the series’ first two games. Boston has averaged at least one PP marker per game through eight games in the playoffs, and next to Colorado, may have the best power play in hockey right now.

In a critical Game 4, we expect the Islanders’ offense to continue to create chances and if they do trail, New York may have to take some more risks which only helps the Over with a low total of 5. A 2-2 game isn’t a lot to ask for.

PREDICTION: Over 5 (-110)

Bruins vs Islanders betting card

  • New York ML (+120)
  • Over 5 (-110)

Picks made on 6/4/2021 at 4:30 p.m. ET

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