Capitals vs Flyers Picks and Predictions for March 7

Updated: March 7, 2021

The Washington Capitals just had a four-game win streak snapped, but they head into Sunday’s tilt against Philadelphia playing better hockey—with the analytics to support it.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

There are eight games on the NHL betting board for Sunday, including a battle between two of the top teams in the East Division as the Washington Capitals face the Philadelphia Flyers. 

Both teams are looking avoid consecutive losses and oddsmakers are expecting a close contest, with the NHL betting lines opening with Philadelphia opening as a slim -120 home favorite. 

Here are our best free Capitals vs. Flyers picks and predictions for Sunday, March 7, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET. 

Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers betting preview


Capitals: Tom Wilson RW (Suspended), Michal Kempny D (Out).
Flyers: Philippe Myers D (Out), Morgan Frost C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in the Flyers’ last five games against teams with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Flyers.

The line opened at Philadelphia -120 with the total at 6. As of 8:30 a.m. ET that line has not moved. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Moneyline pick

The Flyers are fresh off a 4-3 loss to the Penguins yesterday afternoon and have alternated wins and losses over the last four games. The Capitals are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Bruins on Friday, but prior to that defeat had won four in a row.

These teams are very close in the league standings with the Caps in ninth place with a .652 point percentage and the Flyers one spot behind them at .643. A look at the analytics, however, indicates that Washington might be the superior team: The Flyers are just 30th in the league in Fenwick For percentage, a measurement of how well they control possession.

They also rank 27th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes in 5v5 hockey while ranking 21st in xGF/60. That suggests the Flyers are due for regression since they’re not consistently generating – or preventing – scoring chances.

Washington also has the advantage when it comes to special teams, with the fifth-best powerplay and 12th best penalty kill in the league. Philly ranks 18th with the man advantage and just 28th on the penalty kill. 

Washington is winless in the last five meetings between these conference foes, but we think the Caps will snap that losing streak against a tired Flyers squad that is on the tail end of a back-to-back after playing on the road for an entire week. 

PREDICTION: Washington ML (+100)

Covers NHL betting analysis

Over/Under pick

These teams met up once this year, combining for 11 goals in a 7-4 Flyers victory. The Flyers have been the best Over bet in the league this season, going 14-7 O/U while the Capitals have also been consistently going above the total going 13-9 O/U.

Philadelphia ranks seventh in the league in scoring with 3.33 goals per game but goalie Carter Hart has struggled. The 22-year-old had a breakthrough season in 2020 but has a 3.49 goals-against average with a save percentage of just .893 across 13 starts. He also surrendered five goals on 27 shots in his previous appearance against Pittsburgh.

Washington is ninth in the league with 3.22 GPG but has also gotten poor play between the pipes, surrendering 3.17 GPG as a team. Although No. 1 netminder Ilya Samsonov appears to be healthy after a bout with COVID-19, he’s still shaking off the rust and has an .877 SV% in four games this year. Take the Over. 

PREDICTION: Over 6 (-120)

Capitals vs Flyers betting card

  • Moneyline Washington (+100)
  • Over 6 (-120)

NHL parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Capitals vs. Flyers picks, you could win $26.67 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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