Florida vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions for SEC Tournament March 12

Updated: March 11, 2021

The Volunteers ended the regular season with a win over the Gators, who were without Tre Mann. With Mann back in the lineup, can Florida upset Tennessee in the SEC Tournament?

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It has been an up-and-down season for the Tennessee Volunteers, who entered the SEC Tournament as the No. 4 seed. The Vols have traded wins and losses over their last six games and will be in tough against a Florida Gators team that could be finding its bite at the right time.

These SEC foes split their two meetings this season but it is the Volunteers who are the slight 3-point favorites for this quarterfinals matchup.

Check out our best free Florida vs. Tennessee picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Friday, March 12, with tipoff at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Florida vs Tennessee odds

The line opened at Volunteers -3, with the total at 133. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Florida Gators vs Tennessee Volunteers betting preview


Florida: No injuries to report.
Tennessee: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-0-1 in Florida’s last eight games and 3-1 in Tennessee’s last four games overall. 
Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida vs. Tennessee.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Tennessee went 10-7 straight up in SEC play this season, but just 5-4 down the stretch. While that does include a regular season-closing 65-54 home win over this same Florida team, the Gators were without leading scorer Tre Mann for that matchup. 

The Volunteers are a defense-first team, ranking fourth in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, but they will have their hands full with Mann and a Gators team that has four players averaging double-digit points.

Mann is averaging 20.8 points over his last four games while shooting 65.8 percent from the floor. And, outside of the last game against the Vols, the Gators are averaging 70.8 points per contest over their last five. They also lead the SEC in field goal percentage for the season.

But Tennessee’s bigger problem is on offense. The Vols are a middle-of-the-pack team on offense, but rank 176th in effective field goal percentage and don’t have much of a presence on the perimeter outside of leading-scorer Jaden Springer.

That inconsistency has really shown over the last six games, with the Vols averaging 76 points in the wins and just 64 points in the losses. It should be noted the Gators aren’t too shabby on defense either, ranking 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

On top of all that, Florida crushed Tennessee 75-49 as 9-point underdogs back on Jan. 19. We like the Gators to take a chomp out of the Vols once again and cover as slight pups.

PREDICTION: Florida +3 (-110)

More Covers SEC Tournament picks

Over/Under Pick

Tennessee and Florida went Under the total in both of their previous meetings and we can tell you that’s the way we’re leaning once again. Those two games saw an average of just 121.5 points, with an average total of 136.5. So, it’s nice to see a number at 133.

As noted, these are two of the SEC’s top defenses and are very athletic with good rim proctors at that end of the floor. Florida allows 69.8 points per game on the season, while Tennessee limits opponents to a minuscule 62.7 points per contest. 

Another fun thing to note: Mann seems to be almost as integral to the Gators’ defense as he is their offense. Florida is allowing just 67 points per game in the last seven games he has played, with the Under going 6-0-1 in that span.

PREDICTION: Under 133 (-110)

Florida vs Tennessee betting card

  • Florida +3 (-110)
  • Under 133 (-110)

NCAA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA Florida vs. Tennessee picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on college basketball?

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