Illinois vs Michigan Picks and Predictions for March 2

Updated: March 2, 2021

Michigan is 12-0 SU at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game, and gets to host an Illinois squad tonight that might be without its leading scorer.

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There are some fantastic matchups on the college basketball betting board tonight, including a battle between the No. 4-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini and the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines.

Despite how close these two schools are in the latest AP Top 25 poll, oddsmakers don’t think this contest will be all that tight, installing the Wolverines as 7.5-point home favorites.

We let you know what we think with our best free Illinois vs. Michigan picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 2, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET. 

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines betting preview


Illinois: Ayo Dosunmu G (Questionable), Edgar Padilla Jr. G (Questionable), Zach Griffith F (Out).
Michigan: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Michigan is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games at home against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Illinois vs. Michigan.

The line opened at Michigan -8, with the total at 146.5. Early action favored Illinois, moving the line to Michigan -7.5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The biggest question mark in this game is the status of Illinois guard Ayo Dosunmu, who is listed as questionable after missing the last two games due to a facial injury. Illinois coach Brad Underwood seems to be in no rush to play his superstar, emphasizing that the NCAA tournament is what really matters and saying Dosunmu is still “day-to-day” when asked about his status last night.

As good as Illinois is, I don’t see it covering against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor without Dosunmu in the lineup. Not only does he lead the Illini with 21 points per game while shooting 40 percent from beyond the arc, but he’s also leading the team in assists (5.3 per game) and is second in rebounds (6.3). And when these teams previously met up last season, he scored 27 of his team’s 64 points in an Illinois upset win. 

Michigan has gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS over its last seven games, which includes road wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin as well as a beatdown of Iowa at home. Juwan Howard’s squad has been fantastic on both ends of the floor, ranking fifth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. 

The Wolverines have been particularly dominant at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game and demolishing ranked foes like Wisconsin and Iowa by more than 20 points. With Michigan 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games at home against teams with a winning percentage on the road, back the Wolverines tonight. 

PREDICTION: Michigan -7.5 (-110)

Covers NCAA basketball betting analysis

Over/Under Pick

Illinois has been terrific offensively this season, ranking second in the Big Ten in scoring with 81.2 ppg while leading the conference with a field goal percentage of 50.1. That said, if Dosunmu sits out his scoring and playmaking abilities will be sorely missed.

The Illini will need to rely on their stingy defense, which limits opponents to a field goal percentage of 41.1 and leads all Power 6 conference schools in defensive rebounds per game.

The Wolverines are even better on the defensive end of the floor, especially at the Crisler Center where they hold foes to 63.8 ppg on 36.3 percent shooting. They also play at a slow pace, ranking 227th in the country in adjusted tempo.

Michigan also has a tendency to play lower-scoring contests against quality opposition, going 7-1 to the Under in its last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

PREDICTION: Under 146.5 (-110)

Illinois vs Michigan betting card

  • Michigan -7.5 (-110)
  • Under 146.5 (-110)

NCAA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA Illinois vs. Michigan picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on college basketball?

You can bet on college basketball odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NCAA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of prop odds. Head over to our best sportsbooks for college basketball betting in your area.

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