Knicks vs Nuggets NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions May 5

Updated: May 4, 2021

MVP favorite Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will be looking to rebound from an ugly loss vs. the Lakers, as they return home to face the red-hot Knicks.

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Two of the NBA’s hottest teams will complete their season series on Wednesday, with the New York Knicks taking their road trip to Mile High to take on the Denver Nuggets. Both teams are headed to the postseason, with New York surprising as the Eastern Conference’s fourth seed, while Denver has impressed after losing its second-best player.

Here are our best free NBA betting picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Nuggets on May 5 at 9:00 p.m. ET.

Knicks vs Nuggets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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The line opened at Nuggets -4, with the total at 214. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

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Knicks at Nuggets betting preview


Knicks: Alec Burks SG (Questionable), Nerlens Noel C (Questionable), John Henson PF (Out), Mitchell Robinson C (Out).
Nuggets: P.J. Dozier SG (Questionable), Zeke Nnaji PF (Questionable), Will Barton SG (Out), Monte Morris PG (Out), Jamal Murray PG (Out).
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Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in the Nuggets’ last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Nuggets.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Though a four-point loss to a LeBron James-less Lakers squad at Staples was disappointing, the Nuggets have been fantastic since Jamal Murray went down with a season-ending ACL tear. In 11 games, Denver is 9-2 SU without its point guard, and a 5-6 ATS mark is made worse after failing to cover against Houston by one point and Portland by half a point.

The Nuggets are continuing to play like one of the league’s elite teams due to clear-cut MVP Nikola Jokic, who has been the best player in the league wire-to-wire in 2021, as well as Michael Porter Jr., who has thrived with an increased role. While Denver may come up short in the playoffs, there is no reason to believe it’s any less formidable down the stretch of the regular season, even without Murray.

Speaking of formidable: it may have taken a couple of months, but the Knicks sure do appear to be as formidable as any Tom Thibodeau team. New York has won 12 of its last 13 games, with a hard-fought eight-point loss to the Suns the only stain. Incredibly, the Knicks are also 12-1 ATS over their last 13 games. Again, however, the one loss came against Phoenix. 

The most difficult game in this stretch for New York, at home to the Suns, resulted in both a straight-up and against the spread loss. Going on the road to Denver to face the Nuggets is about the same level of difficulty, and the high-profile individual matchups could make it even worse for the Knicks.

Aaron Gordon is as ideal of a defender as there is for Julius Randle in 2021, with the athleticism to stick with him whether he is attacking the rim or showing off his new and seriously effective stepback. Meanwhile, with all due respect to Taj Gibson, who did an admirable job wrestling with Jokic for two years as a member of the Timberwolves, New York has no answer for the MVP-to-be — especially if Nerlens Noel, who’s questionable, misses out.  

PREDICTION: Nuggets -4 (-110)

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Over/Under pick

While the Nuggets have continued to hum in Murray’s absence, one of the NBA’s most reliable Over bets has become a little less solid, as they are just 4-7 O/U without Murray. Jokic makes everyone around him ascend to high-level efficiency and Porter Jr. still provides them with a bona fide shotmaker, but losing Murray’s own sharpshooting is tough. 

So, their usual high-scoring output could be hard to find on Wednesday against a Thibodeau team who has taken on their surly head coach’s identity. The Knicks are a stellar fourth in defensive rating in the NBA, gaining ground on third-place Utah Jazz and alleged Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. 

While New York has gotten by on the strength of its defense and is unsurprisingly favoring the Under at 30-35 O/U on the year, its current hot stretch has been a reversal. The Knicks are 10-3 to the Over in their last 13, with the three Unders coming when their opponent was held below 100. That won’t happen in Denver.

PREDICTION: Over 214 (-110)

Player prop pick

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Knicks vs Nuggets betting card

  • Nuggets -4 (-110)
  • Over 214 (-110)

Picks made on 5/4/2021 at 7:55 p.m. ET

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