MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions for May 1

Updated: May 1, 2021

Reigning AL rookie of the year Kyle Lewis has been flaunting his power of late, and gets to face the Angels’ Griffin Canning tonight, who has seen over 35 percent of his fly balls go for homers over his last four starts.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

The MLB season is in full swing, and with it, all the betting markets that we’ve come to love/hate. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it. 

Today, we’re getting behind a strikeout prop that we think is a full K too low, hitting an early F5 Under and sprinkling some home run magic on the Seattle bats. 

Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, May 1, 2021.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees first five Under 5 (-120) 

If you’ve been waiting for the Yankees’ offense to catch fire, you may have to wait a bit longer. Even with yesterday’s 10-run showing (see mop-up duty pitchers), the bats are still cold over the last 10 days, as New York was slashing .216/.312/.369 heading into Friday’s 10-0 win. Those numbers are on par with their season averages, which puts them 25th in AVG, 12th in OBP and 22nd in SLG. The batting average in balls in play indicates that more hits are on the way, but we are now a month into the season and this offense is scoring the third-fewest runs per game in the AL at 3.68. Luckily for the Bombers, the Tigers’ offense is even worse. 

Detroit finds itself dead-last in wRC+ on the season which is a stat that shows a club’s ability to create runs and measures it against the rest of the league. The Tigers have a wRC+ of 70 which means they are 30 points off the league average. They’re also last in wOBA, AVG, OBP and SLG. It’s safe to say that the Tigers are rolling out the league’s worst and least intimidating offense. 

New York’s Jameson Taillon has been hot and cold over his first five starts and is coming off a dud against Cleveland. Taillon’s good starts have all come at Yankee Stadium, as opponents have a .651 OPS against the righty in his 10 innings in the Bronx. His 6.23 ERA is giving us a great number on the first five total of 5, on which we will gladly hit the Under.

Covers MLB betting analysis

Dustin May Over 5.5 strikeouts (-115) 

When looking at MLB player props, taking out volatility is important, that’s why we feel that starting pitching props are some of the safer markets in the baseball prop world.

Dodgers’ starters have struck out a league-high 185 batters out of 628, which is good for a near-30 percent strikeout rate. Saturday’s projected starter and Sideshow Bob-heckled Dustin May will turn his 13.50 K/9 onto the swing-and-miss Milwaukee Brewers lineup.

May is coming off his best start of the season with 10 punchouts over six innings of two-hit ball versus the Padres and will face a Brewers offense that leads the NL in strikeout percentage. May had the Padres guessing at the plate last Sunday with a silly 40 percent CSW rate (called strike plus whiff). 

May has been blessing backers with ridiculous strikeout totals over his last two starts (5.5) which he has easily surpassed. The high-waisted hurler is good to go into the high-90’s in regards to his pitch count and will be needed to right a Dodgers’ ship that has gone off course of late — 3-7 SU in its last 10. The Brewers have the league’s third-worst wRC+ over the last week, which is a good indicator of how poorly it’s been performing of late.

Give us the Over on his 5.5 strikeout total.

Kyle Lewis (+600 .5u) and Mitch Haniger (+500 .5u) Over 0.5 home runs 

Betting players to hit home runs is not one of the hottest player prop markets in baseball, but with payouts of up to +600 for middle-of-the-order hitters, it’s a market worth sprinkling from time to time.

The Seattle Mariners will face Angels starter Griffin Canning on Saturday night. Canning has allowed a bomb in each of his four appearances this season and has surrendered a whiplash-inducing six long balls over his 15 innings of work. Over 35 percent of his fly balls are going for homers. Seattle is an average team with 30 home runs on the season, but in a plus-matchup, this looks like our best game to litter the board with some longshots.

Last year’s AL rookie of the year, Kyle Lewis, is hitting just .161 since returning to the lineup last week but has two homers and a double in his five total hits. Lewis is also 1 for 2 against Canning with a homer over his young career. That’s worth a half-unit at +600.

Looking at the other best options in Seattle with Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger, we’re leaning with the right-handed-hitting Haniger. Canning has given up five of his six taters to right-handed batters, as righties are sporting a 1.088 OPS against the Los Angeles pitcher. Haniger also went deep yesterday for his team-leading sixth home run. 

Our other half-unit is going on the Mariners’ confident leadoff hitter, who should get five cracks at hitting the +500 prop.

Yesterday’s MLB record: 2-1, +0.92 units
Season MLB betting record: 40-47, -10.24 units

MLB betting card for May 1

  • Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees first five Under 5 (-120)
  • Dustin May Over 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
  • Kyle Lewis (+600 .5 units) and Mitch Haniger (+500 .5 units) Over 0.5 home runs

Picks made on 5/01/2021 at 7:00 a.m. ET.

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $212.79 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on MLB props?

You can bet on MLB props at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB player props, derivatives, and a ton of other MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB props in your area.

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