MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions for May 4

Updated: May 4, 2021

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had three of Toronto’s nine hits in a series-opening loss to the A’s, bumping his average to .356. We expect the teams to bring the offense tonight after combining for 18 hits Monday.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

Sound the deGrom gong, it’s deGrom Day! One of our favorite MLB prop bets has been reborn in 2021 thanks to New York Mets hitters resembling storm troopers trying to blast Luke Skywalker. 

The Mets have fired their hitting coaches in hopes of a turnaround but on this May the 4th, it is hit or hit not, there is no try. At least that’s what deGrom hopes after continuing to get bad results despite dominant performances.

We break down that pick and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Tuesday, May 4.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)

There are so many great starters in the National League now, a guy like Aaron Nola gets a little bit overlooked. But the Philadelphia Phillies starter has shown he belongs in that conversation. The Phillies’ ace has gotten his 2021 campaign off to a solid start, pitching to a 3.11 ERA and a 0.96 WHP while striking out 39 batters in 37 2-3 innings of work.

What is impressive about Nola’s strikeout numbers is that four of his six starts have come against teams that rank in the Top 10 of fewest strikeouts per game. The Milwaukee Brewers do not fall in that category. The Brewers strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB, getting punched out 10.31 times per game and that has actually bumped up to 12.33 over the last three games.

Nola has only gone Over this number once this season but this is a matchup good enough to attack the Over.

Covers MLB betting analysis

Mets-Cardinals Under 3.5 Five Inning Total (-140)

You know what’s coming. It’s deGrom Day! The Mets ace takes the mound after getting an extra day of rest and will go up against the St. Louis Cardinals.

deGrom Day has been reborn in 2021 thanks to the Mets looking lost at the dish this season. And even though the Mets’ bats have shown a little more life the last few games, the team’s brass decided to cut ties with their hitting coaches. 

What has happened to deGrom this season is bordering farcical at this point. The right-hander is without a doubt the best pitcher in baseball right now, is as dominant as they come, and the team is just 2-3 in his starts and could easily be 1-4.

It’s getting to the point where it doesn’t matter who the Mets are facing and today, that is Cardinals’ rookie Johan Oviedo. The right-hander has looked solid in one long-relief appearance and one start this season, pitching to a 2.79 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and striking out 11 batters in 9 2-3 innings of work.

Even with a number this low, that’s good enough for me against a Mets team that still ranks 29th in scoring, 29th in home runs, and 20th in OPS. Sound the deGrom gong!

Blue Jays-A’s Over 15.5 Total Hits (-130)

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics opened their three-game set with a fairly exciting 5-4 victory in favor of the home side A’s. The teams combined for 18 hits in that one and we could be in for more of the same in Game 2.

The Blue Jays’ lineup looks completely different now that George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez are back. The Jays have scored 30 runs in their last four games and whacked nine hits in the opener and that was with Springer getting a day off. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Randall Grichuk are still rolling for a lineup that hits .257 against lefties and gets to go up against southpaw Cole Irvin.

The A’s matched the Jays hit total in the opener with nine, and they also hit better against left-handers. They go against Toronto southpaw Anthony Kay who gave up six hits in just 3 1-3 innings of work in his lone start of the season. It looks like another Whacking Day out by the Bay.

Yesterday’s MLB record: 1-1, 0.2 units
Season MLB betting record: 46-50-2, -4.01 units

MLB betting card for May 4

  • Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
  • NYM-STL Under 3.5 Five Inning Total (-140)
  • TOR-OAK Over 15.5 Total Hits (-130)

Picks made on 5/04/2021 at 1135 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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