Nuggets vs Suns NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions June 7

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Updated: June 7, 2021

If the regular season meetings between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns are any indication, we’re in for one wild Western Conference semifinal, with Game 1 of the series tipping off Monday night.

These foes faced each other three times, with Denver edging Phoenix 2-1 in the season series, but needing overtime for both wins in Arizona, while the Suns beat the Nuggets by a mere three points inside Ball Arena. The have Phoenix as a 4.5-point NBA betting favorite for Game 1.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Suns on June 7.

Nuggets vs Suns game info

Location: Phoenix Suns Arena, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Monday, June 7, 2021
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Nuggets vs Suns odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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The Suns opened as big as -5.5 but have dipped to -4.5 with early play on the Nuggets. The total opened at 219.5 points has climbed to 220.5 at some sportsbooks. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Nuggets vs Suns series odds

Nuggets: +172
Suns: -205

Nuggets vs Suns betting preview

Injuries

Nuggets: Jamal Murray G (Out), Will Barton G (Out), P.J. Dozier G (Out)
Suns: Abdel Nader F (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings with the Suns. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Suns.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Denver’s pair of victories in Phoenix this season came with Jamal Murray and Will Barton in the backcourt, a tandem the Nuggets have had to learn to live without. They were able to overcome those holes in a six-game series win over Portland in the quarterfinals but face a stiffer test on defense with the Suns.

Phoenix is riding high after sending the defending champs on summer vacation, knocking out the Los Angeles Lakers in six games as well. The Suns were solid on both ends of the floor, but definitely benefitted from L.A.’s lack of 3-point threats and the injury to Anthony Davis that took him off the floor for the final two and a half games of the series.

Denver is a better offensive unit than the Lakers (122.9 offensive rating in playoffs), most notably from deep. The Nuggets shot at 40.6 percent from distance and averaged more than 15 3-point buckets per game versus Portland. Improved efforts from guards like Monte Morris, Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo helped overcome those shortcomings in the backcourt and versatile forward Michael Porter Jr. looks like the player Denver was hoping he would be.

That’s giving Nikola Jokic plenty of support after he carried the team into the postseason and through the opening games versus the Trail Blazers. Jokic has a tough matchup in Suns mobile center Deandre Ayton, but the Nuggets’ pick-and-roll attack will go head hunting for mismatches for the MVP, facing a Suns defense that ranked among the bottom of the league in scoring frequency when defending the screener in pick-and-roll situations. Phoenix is also short on capable big men, so keeping Jokic contained if the frontcourt runs into foul trouble will be a sore point.

This spread opened as big as Phoenix -5.5 with the Suns drawing plenty of eyes after upending LeBron and the Lakers, setting up a possible letdown in the opening game of this conference semifinal series. That spread slimmed to -4.5 with early sharp play on the Nuggets, who went 4-2 ATS versus Portland and are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 playoff games as underdogs.

PREDICTION: Denver +4.5 (-110)

Covers NBA betting analysis

Over/Under pick

The Suns slogged through a Round 1 matchup dictated by the Lakers’ tempo and shutdown defense. Phoenix and L.A. stayed below the total in four of those six games while pushing with the Game 2 number, which had a lot to do with the Lakers’ inability to hit 3-pointers.

Books pegged those opening round Over/Under totals between 214 and 208 and have the total for Game 1 versus Denver at sub-220, sitting at 219.5 points for Monday night. 

As mentioned, Denver has much better range than Los Angeles, and is spreading the scoring load around and receiving great production from the reserves when called upon. The Nuggets are getting almost 36 points per game from the bench in the playoffs. 

Obviously, the Nuggets aren’t on the same defensive level as Los Angeles and posted a 122.1 defensive rating against Damian Lillard and the Blazers. Now they face another high-scoring threat in Devin Booker, who just dropped 77 points in his past two games.

Denver also went 14-9 Over/Under versus totals of 219.5 or lower this season, so keep an eye on where this number goes.

PREDICTION: Over 219.5 (-110)

Player prop pick

Porter Jr. was a matchup issue for the Blazers. He was blowing by bigger defenders while shooting over smaller guys. 

Phoenix faces the same problem against the 6-foot-10 forward, who’s shooting 51 percent in the playoffs, including a 43.9 percent stroke from downtown. Porter Jr. is coming off a pair of 26-point performances in closing out the Blazers, in which he fired a collective 20 for 32 from the field.

He’s been able to focus on his offensive output with Aaron Gordon being leaned on more as a defender, and takes on a diminutive Suns starting frontcourt with a lack of size coming off the bench. 

PREDICTION: Michael Porter Jr. points Over 20.5 (-104)

Nuggets vs Suns betting card

  • Denver +4.5 (-110)
  • Over 219.5 (-110)
  • Michael Porter Jr. points Over 20.5 (-104)

Picks made on 6/7/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET

NBA parlays

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