Props and Matchup Best Bets

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Updated: May 22, 2021

Covers Staff

Clock Icon May 22, 2021 – 9:05 PM ET

Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka should have plenty to talk about as the last pairing for Sunday’s final round of the PGA Championship – after all, they’ve both won this event before.

Mickelson, the 2005 champion, enters the final 18 holes at the Ocean Course at Kiawah seven-under, good for a one-shot lead over Koepka, the 2019 winner. Mickelson will look to become the oldest man to win a major title, while Koepka has his sights on a fifth major championship in the past five years. Both golfers have plenty of company from the field, as seven other players enter Sunday within five shots of the lead.

Here are our golf picks, predictions and best bets for Round 4 of the PGA Championship.

PGA Championship Round 4 Picks and Predictions

Brooks Koepka Outright (+150)

Here’s what we wrote on Koepka in our Round 3 picks write-up: “He’s a terrific value play given his major pedigree and the fact that he looks fully recovered from knee surgery.” That remains true of his odds heading into Sunday, as Koepka hit it long, hit it straight and made enough putts to fashion a third-round 70 in difficult conditions. We’re still not completely confident that Mickelson can close this one out, which makes Koepka our top choice to win major No. 5.

Covers 2021 PGA Championship Coverage

Louis Oosthuizen Outright (+600)

It’s never a bad idea to consider betting on the party pooper, which is likely how Oosthuizen will be seen by some if he bests both Lefty and Koepka to win the title. Oosthuizen had a strange Saturday, hitting just five of 14 fairways while losing more than three shots with his putter and still finishing with an even-par 72. Oosthuizen has a major title and has finished second on four different occasions; a stronger performance with the flat stick Sunday, and he just might pull out the victory.

Collin Morikawa Over Tyrrell Hatton (+100)

Morikawa and Hatton have played eerily similar tournaments so far, both opening strong before stumbling in their second and third rounds. But we’re feeling a whole lot more confident in Morikawa to finish with the better score, based solely on the fact that he’s giving himself more birdie opportunities than Hatton. Morikawa has hit 36 greens in regulation through the opening three rounds compared with 30 for Hatton – and if that trend continues, Morikawa is the superior betting play.

Top European: Paul Casey (+187) 

Casey wasn’t as steady Saturday as he had been over the opening two rounds, but still came away with a respectable one-over 73 that puts him in great position to finish as the low European. Two days of strong work with the flat stick gave way to a -2.85 SG: Putting performance on Saturday, and that feels like more of an outlier for the usually unflappable Casey. He’ll face resistance from Matthew Fitzpatrick (+350), but Lowry’s strong iron game should give him the inside track on cashing this prop.

PGA Championship Round 4 Betting Card

  • Brooks Koepka Outright (+150)
  • Louis Oosthuizen Outright (+600)
  • Collin Morikawa Over Tyrrell Hatton (+100)
  • Top European: Paul Casey (+187) 

Where can I bet on the PGA Championship?

Golf betting is booming, with the popularity of the sport spawning fun and unique ways to wagers and the PGA Tour schedule providing year-round action. Where you bet on golf is just as important as what you bet, and we review the best golf betting sites available to you.


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