Senators vs Oilers Picks and Predictions for March 10

Updated: March 10, 2021

MVP favorite Connor McDavid leads the NHL in scoring and has recorded 10 points against the Sens in five games, including a dominant five-point effort in a contest back in January.

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Going for their third consecutive victory, the Edmonton Oilers will host the Ottawa Senators at Rogers Place as part of a five-game NHL betting slate on Wednesday.

Edmonton has dominated the head-to-head matchup this season, winning all five contests—including a 3-2 victory over Ottawa on Monday night.

Can the last-place Senators finally slow down the high-powered Edmonton offense? Find out with our best free NHL picks and predictions for Senators vs. Oilers at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers betting preview


Senators: Marcus Hogberg G (Out).
Oilers: Kyle Turris C (Out), Zack Kassian RW (Out), Josh Archibald RW (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Edmonton is 5-0 straight up against Ottawa this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Oilers.

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The line opened at Edmonton -238 with the total at 6.5. Early action has favored the Oilers, moving the line to as high as Edmonton -265 at some books. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Puck line pick

Things would be a lot better for the Oilers if they could avoid playing the Maple Leafs. Edmonton is 7-3 over its last 10 games with all three of those losses coming against Toronto. The Oilers have only lost to one other team over their last 14 games and it was a one-goal defeat to the Winnipeg Jets in which Edmonton still buried five goals. 

The debacle versus the first-place Leafs, which came at home in three straight games, shouldn’t overshadow how well the Oilers are playing. They’ve responded with wins over the Calgary Flames and Senators since getting dominated by Toronto and will have a chance to make it three in a row when they get the Sens – a team they’ve gone a perfect 5-0 against – for the second time in three nights.

Ottawa, meanwhile, has lost four of six since stringing together its first three-game winning streak of the season. While the Senators have played better hockey after starting the year with a 2-13 record, they still sit last in the North Division and have a -32 goal differential, which is the second-worst mark in the NHL.

The moneyline odds aren’t great for the Oilers at -235 (up to -265 at some books) and it’s hard, if not impossible, to recommend the Senators against anyone, so the better play for tonight is taking Edmonton on the puck line. It has won by two or more goals in three games versus Ottawa this season and after being held to three goals or fewer in six straight, the Oilers are due to go off.

PREDICTION: Edmonton -1.5 (+110)

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Over/Under pick

The head-to-head trend is surprisingly pointing to the Under. The two teams have played five games this season and after an offensive explosion of 13 goals in an 8-5 Oilers win, the last four contests have all gone Under. As lethal as the Oilers’ offense can be, the Under is 9-0-1 in the team’s last 10 games playing on one day of rest. 

Both teams come into this game 12-14 O/U on the season. Edmonton has gone Under in five of its last six games overall – a big reason being an inability to score against Toronto in that three-game sweep – while Ottawa is 2-2-1 in its last five after cashing the Over in three straight. 

The Sens lose a lot, so it’s often the other team driving up the score to hit the Over, and the Oilers shouldn’t have a problem doing that despite what the head-to-head says. Any time a Connor McDavid-powered offense gets one of the worst teams in the NHL (he’s already recorded a five-point game against them this season), the possibility for an outburst exists. While the Oilers have slowed down recently after being among the Top 3 goal-scoring teams for a chunk of the season, they still rank ninth overall and they surrender nearly as much as they score. And Ottawa allows even more. 

The Senators are giving up an NHL-high 3.86 goals per game. They get crushed on the penalty kill, at even strength, and in high-danger scoring areas. Simply put, there are many ways to exploit them. Much of the same can be said for Edmonton, too. Whether it’s Mike Smith versus Matt Murray or some other combination, there isn’t a goalie on either team that can be trusted in this matchup, and with the Sens offense showing signs of life – they’ve gone from barely scoring to ranking Top 5 over their last 10 games – we’re not expecting another Under to cash in this one.

PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (-110)

Senators vs Oilers betting card

  • Edmonton -1.5 (+110)
  • Over 6.5 (-110)

NHL parlays

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