Texas Tech vs Arkansas March Madness Odds, Picks and Predictions March 21

Updated: March 19, 2021

Jared Hochman

Mar 19, 2021 – 6:02 PM ET

The first college basketball matchup in the South Region’s Round of 32 will see No. 3 Arkansas take on sixth-seeded Texas Tech.

Both teams looked like they were going to be terrible March Madness picks in the opening round, falling behind early, but they each got their footing and cruised to easy victories.

We break down the March Madness odds and see who we think will move to the Sweet 16 in our free Texas Tech vs. Arkansas picks and predictions for March 21.

Texas Tech vs Arkansas odds

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The line at early online sportsbooks opened at Texas Tech -1, with the total at 141. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arkansas Razorbacks betting preview


Texas Tech: None.
Arkansas: None.
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Betting trend to know

The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a straight up winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Arkansas.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

In just the second game of the Round of 64 on Friday, Arkansas was looking early on like it would succumb to the March Madness. The Razorbacks trailed by 14 points to No. 14 Colgate midway through the first half, with star player Moses Moody heading to the bench with two fouls.

Arkansas promptly went on a 17-0 run over the final 5:30 of the half, heading into the break with a lead, and clamped down in the second half to cruise to an 85-68 victory—covering as 8.5-point chalk.

While falling behind by double-digits is concerning, there is a lot to like about the Hogs’ opening effort. First, Colgate jumped out to a big lead via a barrage of 3-pointers, while Arkansas’ shot selection seemed to be questionable in a sloppy first 15 minutes. Second, Moody, who was the Razorbacks’ leading scorer this year, only finished with 12 points as senior Justin Smith led the way with 29 points. 

And third, Texas Tech also did not look impressive in the opening half of its game. While Arkansas is known for offense and faced a scoring-focused team in Colgate, Texas Tech is a little more defensive-oriented and faced one of the tougher defensive squads in the nation in No. 11 seed Utah State.

The Red Raiders led 20-14 with five minutes left in the first half but went into the break trailing 26-23. They took over in the second half, however, and forced Utah State into 22 turnovers for the game (compared to turning it over just eight times themselves) as they outscored the Aggies by 15 in the final 20 minutes.

Texas Tech is ranked 33rd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, but they don’t pose nearly the same deep threat to Arkansas that Colgate did and aren’t quite at the Razorback’s level of offensive potential.

This line opened with the Raiders as a favorite, which seems like an overreaction to Arkansas’ slow start—take advantage of that and take the Hogs with a point.  

PREDICTION: Arkansas +1 (-110)

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Over/Under Pick

The Razorbacks are 17th in the nation in adjusted tempo and seventh in points per game, but they’re also ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency—and showed how much they can turn up the defensive intensity in holding Colgate to a season-low 68 points and forcing 22 turnovers.

Texas Tech is 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency, plays at a drastically-slowed tempo than Arkansas (316th in the country), and was 31st in the country in allowing foes to score just 63.4 ppg.

The Raiders’ first-round win was also the fifth Under in their last six games, while Arkansas has cashed three straight Unders and six of its last eight.

We’re expecting both teams to show off their defensive chops on Sunday, so we’re backing the Under again.

PREDICTION: Under 141 (-110)

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First-half pick

Check back later for a first-half pick when markets are live!

Texas Tech vs Arkansas betting card

  • Arkansas +1 (-110)
  • Under 141 (-110)

March Madness parlays

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Where can I bet on March Madness odds?

March Madness is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors, which of course makes it one of the busiest times of the year for online sportsbooks. Every betting site will offer March Madness odds but the top sites are safe and secure, offer a wide range of banking options, and give you a ton of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your region.

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