Valspar Championship Picks and Predictions

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Updated: April 27, 2021

With The Masters now two weeks in the rearview and last week’s unique team competition over and done with, it’s time to get back to good old, regular PGA Tour competition.

Innisbrook Resort in Tampa, Fla., is the site of the Valspar Championship, which is set to serve as an early tune-up event for next month’s PGA Championship. And with the second major already approaching fast, the field for this week’s tournament is an impressive one, highlighted by world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, former top-ranked player Justin Thomas and two-time defending tournament champion Paul Casey.

We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf betting picks, predictions and best bets for the Valspar Championship.

Innisbrook Resort betting stats that matter

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is by far the most challenging of the four courses on site, and its notable elevation changes make it stand out from the majority of other Florida-based setups. That, combined with tight fairways and plenty of hazards in play for just about every hole, make this week’s tournament a stiff challenge, even by PGA Tour standards.

Golfers who combine long drives with accuracy off the tee will obviously fare well here, but with so few golfers boasting both skill sets, bettors should absolutely favor the accuracy a bit more. Even more important: SG: Approach, with the majority of players hitting long iron shots into unforgivingly small greens. SG: Around the Green will matter, too, given this course characteristic.

Valspar Championship outright winner bets

An extended slump has knocked DJ out of his usual spot as the pre-tournament favorite. That distinction for this week belongs to Thomas, who comes in at +900—slightly better than Johnson (+1,100), who is the only other player in the vicinity. Patrick Reed and Corey Conners lead the next tier at +2,000, with two-time defending champ Casey and Viktor Hovland rounding out the Top 5 at +2,200.

Who will win the Valspar Championship? Here are our best picks:

Justin Thomas (+900)

Sure, there’s something a little boring about betting on the favorite to win outright. Cashing a winning wager, however, is anything but dull—and Thomas gives you the best chance of doing that this weekend based on a consistently elite iron game (second in SG: Approach in 2021) that provides him with plenty of birdie opportunities (T21 in Greens-in-Regulation Percentage).

Thomas has struggled to put together four solid rounds this year and still has four Top-5 results. Lock him in.

Corey Conners (+2,000)

Conners checks just about all the boxes you have for a course like this, ranking 10th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (70.0 percent) and sixth in GIR percentage (71.8). He has four Top-8 performances in his last six tournaments, including a seventh-place showing at The Players Championship and a T8 at The Masters.

Like Thomas, he has suffered from “One Bad Round” Syndrome this season, but his all-around game is among the best in the world right now.

Valspar Championship matchup predictions

Paul Casey Over Tyrrell Hatton (-120)

If you play this course at 18-under over a 144-hole stretch, you deserve to get mentioned in this feature. And while Casey might be reeling a bit after a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, he’s not far removed from a T5 showing at The Players Championship and a T26 at The Masters.

Casey’s dominance on the Copperhead Course, and mostly solid recent form, makes him a strong choice to win this matchup, with Hatton (69-81) having missed the cut the last time this tournament took place in 2019.

Max Homa Over Kevin Na (+100)

Homa is the underdog here, and that’s understandable in a sense: He ranks outside the Top 135 in both driving accuracy (57.7 percent) and GIR success rate (64.1 percent). But he’s made a living out of scrambling and has fared well of late with five Top-25 results in his past seven tournaments.

Na’s approach game has been one of the worst on tour this season. Just how bad? He ranks 23rd in driving accuracy but outside the Top 100 in GIR percentage. That’s some bad iron play.

Valspar Championship prop bets

Dustin Johnson Top-5 Finish (+250)

It’s full-blown slump time for DJ, whose T13 at the RBC Heritage was his best showing since a T8 at the Genesis Invitational back in late February. That has no doubt suppressed his odds for this week’s event—which means great value for bettors brave enough to back a rebound.

Johnson finished sixth here two years ago, despite stumbling to a final-round 74, and rode a new putter to a final-round 66 at the RBC Heritage to build some much-needed momentum. He’s still one of the best in the world.

Brandt Snedeker to Make Cut (-167)

Snedeker is nowhere near the form he showed in his prime, but Innisbrook has been kind to the 40-year-old over his career. He has made nine of 10 cuts on this course, finishing 31st and 30th, respectively, the past two tournaments.

Snedeker has made just nine of 17 cuts this season, and there isn’t one facet of his game that leaves you feeling overly confident—but he knows this course as well as anyone in the field, and he has three straight made cuts overall on his resume.

Valspar Championship betting card

  • Justin Thomas Outright (+900)
  • Corey Conners Outright (+2000)
  • Paul Casey Over Tyrrell Hatton (-120)
  • Max Homa Over Kevin Na (+100)
  • Dustin Johnson Top-5 Finish (+250)
  • Brandt Snedeker to Make Cut (-167)

Where can I bet on the PGA?

You can bet on PGA odds at many online and casino sportsbooks, including PGA outrights, matchup bets, and other golf props. Head over to our best golf betting sites for the top spots to bet on PGA odds in your area.


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