Will the Nuggets pull off a small upset vs. Heat? 3/19/18

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Updated: March 19, 2018

Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction

NBA Predictions: Will the Nuggets pull off a small upset vs. Heat? 3/19/18

Are the Denver Nuggets a good bet to upset the Miami Heat tonight when the two teams meet at 7:30 p.m. ET?

Game Snapshot

(607) Denver Nuggets at (608) Miami Heat

Monday, March 19, 2018

TV: N/A, 7:30 p.m. ET

CURRENT ODDS

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook YouWager, the Heat are now 2-point home favorites to beat the Nuggets while the over/under currently sits at 216 points.

Bet This Matchup & Other NBA Games

LINE MOVEMENT

After hitting the board at 1.5, the point spread has moved a half point in favor of the Heat. As for the total, it opened at 215.5 but was bet up slightly to 216 at the majority of online sportsbooks.

PUBLIC BETTING

As of this writing, 52% of betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Nuggets to cover the small point spread. Meanwhile, 62% of the betting tickets are on the over.

KEY INJURY TO WATCH

Gary Harris (knee) is out for the Nuggets while Hassan Whiteside will not play for the Heat due to a hip injury. Dion Waiters (Ankle) is also out for the year and Dwyane Wade (hamstring) is out as well for Miami.

BETTING STRATEGY

Based on how their head coach ripped into them following an ugly loss to the team with the worst record in the NBA, I expect the Nuggets to come out tonight with a sense of urgency. “Our starting group did an awful job of starting the game with any real sense of urgency, and we built ourselves a 21-point hole on the road,” Denver head coach Michael Malone said following a 7-point loss at Memphis. When a head coach questions the effort of his team, the players can respond in either one of two ways: Either they get ticked off and fight hard the next game, or they wind up proving their head coach right. I’m banking on the former.

The Nuggets are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Miami and have covered the number in 16 of their last 23 games versus the Heat overall. The road team is also a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the underdog is 4-0 against the number in the last four meetings.

 

OUR PREDICTION: DENVER NUGGETS +2



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