Ally 400 Picks, Predictions

Updated: June 17, 2021

The Cup Series visits Nashville Superspeedway for the first time ever this weekend. With only a handful of drivers having raced here before (more than a decade ago), we’re ready for anything in our Ally 400 betting preview.


Posted: Jun 17, 2021 3:49 PM ET Updated: Jun 17, 2021 3:49 PM ET Est Time: 5 min

After a fun weekend of All-Star race action last week, NASCAR betting will see the drivers back at it this weekend in a race for points and money.

NASCAR odds for Nashville Superspeedway are on the board this weekend, as the track will host its first Cup Series race ever on Father’s Day. This event will be the first NASCAR Cup Series race even in the Nashville area since 1984, when the series last competed at Nashville Fairgrounds Speedway in July 1984.

This weekend’s Ally 400 will be the 44th different race in the Modern Era (1972-Present) where NASCAR odds were available on Father’s Day, although it’s the first time since 2017 that a race has happened on this day.

Get the inside track on your NASCAR bets with Covers Experts’ Auto Racing Advisor preview and picks for the Ally 400, which gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, June 20.  

Ally 400 favorites: Larson leads the way

Kyle Larson (+275)

He has five straight Top-2 results, and three straight wins, including a runner-up at Darlington last month — which is the closest comparable for this track.

Martin Truex Jr. (+650)

He’s the only other driver with three wins this season, with one of those being at Darlington when he led 248 of 293 laps that day.

Chase Elliott (+700)

He has five Top-5 finishes in his last six starts, including four straight Top 3s. He was seventh at Darlington on Mother’s Day weekend and should have won at least two of the races on that track last year.

Kyle Busch (+900)

He was great in the feeder series races at Nashville and enters this weekend with five Top-10 results in his last six tries, including four of which were in the Top 5. Busch also finished third in Darlington.

Covers NASCAR Betting Content

Ally 400 long-shot picks: Reddick, Buescher sneaky values

William Byron (+1,200)

He has a Top 10 at every track, minus road courses and Daytona. Byron was fourth back in May at Darlington.

Austin Dillon (+4,000)

Four Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts on the season, and a driver who was in the Top 5 at Darlington last September.

Tyler Reddick (+4,000)

He has five Top 10’s in his last seven starts this year and is always good on high tire wear tracks.

Chris Buescher (+12,500)

Three Top 10’s in his last six tries and he, like Reddick, is great on older racing surfaces. His best races this season have come at Homestead, Atlanta and Darlington. This track races like those.

Ally 400 matchup pick: Larson’s streak likely ends

Kyle Larson (-182) vs. Martin Truex Jr. (+135)

Yes, I know I’m going against the guy that has five straight Top-2 finishes but this is an inaugural race and if this event is anything like Darlington, which the consensus is that it will be, Truex beat Larson that day — and dominated.

Two of Truex Jr.’s three wins in 2021 are with this 750 package… and you’re giving me plus money.

PICK: Truex Jr. (+135)

Ally 400 fades: Not the weekend to wager on Harvick

Kevin Harvick (+1,200)

He’s normally really good at Darlington, but he only led 10 laps this past May. He’s also only had two Top-5 finishes in his last 13 starts on the season.

Christopher Bell (+3,300)

He has just one Top-15 result in his last seven tries on the year.

Team Penske

Joey Logano (+1,100) was 13th at Darlington last month. Ryan Blaney (+1,200) has not had a Top-5 finish since his win 10 races ago and Brad Keselowski (+1,100) has just two Top-10 results in his last 11 tries on the season. This might be a good weekend to fade them.

Chip Ganassi Racing

Yes, both drivers are coming off of Top 10s last weekend but that was on a road course. Kurt Busch (+5,000) has 12 finishes of 13th or worse in his last 13 starts on the season and Ross Chastain (+12,500) has one Top-5 finish all year, with two of his three Top 10s coming on road courses.

Ally 400 preview

This is a tough race to decipher through. It’s the inaugural Ally 400 at the Nashville Superspeedway. There are no track trends because the Cup drivers have never raced there and the last time any race took place on this track was over a decade ago, so there’s nothing to look at in terms of historical data.

Also, in saying that, most of the drivers here have never even raced here. You do have Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and a few others who’ve raced Trucks or Xfinity Series races at Nashville — but that was more than a decade ago.

So how do you predict this race? Well, the closest comparison is going to be Darlington. Everyone in the garage is saying that’s the best place to start with, so the race should look a lot like there. Combine Darlington with who’s doing well this season… and you’ll start to get an idea of who the favorites are this weekend.

Ally 400 key stat

Looking through the preliminary entry list for this race, of the 39 competitors entered only 14 have made at least one start in a NASCAR national series event at Nashville Superspeedway.

Of those 14 drivers with starts at Nashville, only five have previously won at the 1.33-mile track: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Auston Dillon and Joey Logano, with none of those races coming after 2011.

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