AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Picks and Predictions

Updated: February 10, 2021

After a shocking missed cut last weekend at TPC Scottsdale, look for Daniel Berger – one of the steadiest players on tour so far this season – to bounce back at Pebble Beach.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

It’s one of the most notable non-majors on the PGA Tour—but this year’s edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will have a little less star power than previous incarnations.

Dustin Johnson was the pre-tournament PGA Tour betting favorite but has withdrawn, leaving the door wide open for a host of challengers with tight golf odds. And Johnson’s absence isn’t the only thing different about this year’s edition of the tournament, which will feature no pro-am due to continued COVID-19 protocols.

Players will also compete on just two of the club’s three courses, while the cut (which usually takes place at the 54-hole mark) has been pulled back to 36 holes.

We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf picks, predictions and best bets for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Pebble Beach Betting Stats that Matter

Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course are the battlefields for this year’s tournament and with the former course the site for 54 of the 72 holes for all players making the cut, that’s where we’ll focus this write-up. Pebble Beach measures fewer than 6,900 yards, making it feel like a dream for players used to layouts well over 7,200 yards—but this is no cakewalk.

SG: Approach will be critical this week, with Pebble Beach featuring some of the smallest greens on tour. Getting to the green is paramount to scoring well, and that task is harder here than just about anywhere else. SG: Putting is the other key stat for the week, with Pebble Beach’s poa annua greens running faster than what players normally encounter outside a major.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Winner Bets

Just how much does Johnson’s withdrawal open things up? Johnson was an incredible +400 to win—and you just don’t see outright odds that low at the majority of PGA Tour events. With him out of the picture, Patrick Cantlay is the new tournament favorite at +750, with Daniel Berger – whose missed cut ruined a lot of people’s betting cards last week – and Paul Casey are next in line at +1,400. Will Zalatoris (+1,800) and Jason Day (+2,000) round out the Top 5.

Who will win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Here’s our best guess:

Daniel Berger (+1,400)

Bettors need to have short-term memories when it comes to player performances—at least, it helps in this case. Berger was one of the steadier players in last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field, firing a 70-69-70-69 en route to a fifth-place finish for his second Top 10 in two non-major appearances.

His approach game is strong, he’s one of the better putters on tour and he should also be sufficiently motivated by last week’s stunning missed cut. Berger should contend all week long.

Matthew NeSmith (+6,000)

How about a zero-time PGA Tour winner for a nice longshot play this week? NeSmith’s game has flaws, for sure, but he posted a T7 at last week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open and has put together one of the most reliable approach games on tour this season (.850 strokes gained, 12th).

He also finished 11th here last year, which bodes well for his 2021 outlook. NeSmith will need to rediscover his putting form of last season, but if he does, he’ll be in contention this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Matchup Predictions

Will Zalatoris Over Paul Casey (+100)

Zalatoris is one of the hottest names in golf right now and he should see plenty of betting action this week after posting a T17 at last week’s event with Friday-Saturday rounds of 66-64.

Zalatoris has six Top-25 showings in eight events this season while ranking fourth in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Total. Casey has struggled mightily on and around the green so far this season, giving Zalatoris the kind of edge to make good on this matchup win at strong odds.

Jordan Spieth over Jason Day (-110)

We can forgive anyone who decides to stay far, far away from this matchup prop, given how both guys have looked for most of the season. But Spieth looked rejuvenated en route to a T4 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and has four Top-10 finishes in eight non-major events at Pebble Beach (including a ninth-place showing last year).

Day has missed both cuts since featuring a new set of clubs…and doesn’t look close to figuring things out. We’ll take Spieth, but we’re holding our nose.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Prop Bets

Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish (-143)

Cantlay jumps right into the hot seat with DJ’s withdrawal, but he has the game to back up those lofty odds. While he hasn’t played since finishing second at The American Express, he has three Top 10s in seven events and finished 11th here last year.

More significantly, his overall metrics suggest he should be able to give himself plenty of birdie opportunities at an event where pinpoint approach shots are pivotal. This feels like one of the safer plays of the week.

Harold Varner III Top-20 Finish (+250)

Inconsistency has been a problem for Varner, but we’ve seen what he can do when his game is on point. Four rounds in the 60s last week led to a T13 finish, and his 16th-place ranking in SG: Approach (.770) portends well for his foray to Pebble Beach.

He missed the cut at this event last year, and his putter has let him down repeatedly this season—but the rest of his game has been strong and at +250 to finish in the Top 20, it’s worth investing in Varner to keep the good times rolling this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Card

  • Daniel Berger Outright (+1,400)
  • Matthew NeSmith Outright (+6,000)
  • Will Zalatoris Over Paul Casey (+100)
  • Jordan Spieth over Jason Day (-110)
  • Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish (-143)
  • Harold Varner III Top-20 Finish (+250)

Where Can I Bet on the PGA?

You can bet on PGA odds at many online and casino sportsbooks, including PGA outrights, matchup bets, and other golf props. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on PGA odds in your area.

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