Blachowicz vs Adesanya Picks and Predictions

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Updated: February 26, 2021

UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is moving up to light heavyweight to challenge Jan Blachowicz and is favored (-260) to become a two-division champion.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

Jan Błachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya is the main event for UFC 259 betting on Saturday, March 6. 

This is one of the most highly-anticipated fights of the year with the current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya moving up to light heavyweight to face newly-crowned champ Jan Blachowicz.

Blachowicz makes his first defense of the title as a +215 underdog while Adesanya comes back as the favorite at -260. 

We break down the UFC betting lines for this championship bout as we bring you our best picks and predictions for UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Blachowicz vs Adesanya fight odds

Method of Victory Jan Blachowicz Israel Adesanya
Win Outright +215 -260
Win by KO/TKO +460 +120
Win by Points +950 +250
Win by Submission +900 +2,100
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Blachowicz vs Adesanya betting preview

When Jon Jones vacated the light heavyweight title for a shot at heavyweight glory, he left a big void in the division that he had dominated for a decade. That void may soon be filled by the world’s best striker, Israel Adesanya, who looks to become a two-division champ as he makes his debut at 205 pounds.

Adesanya has essentially cleaned out the middleweight division after knocking out Paulo Costa at UFC 253 last September. The Last Stylebender is now 20-0 in his MMA career, including 9-0 since joining the UFC in 2018.

Adesanya is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 75-5 across various promotions. The 31-year-old is an extremely precise striker with fantastic movement and surprising power for his lean build.

Covers UFC 259 Betting Analysis

Jan Blachowicz claimed the vacant title with a second-round knockout victory over Dominick Reyes as the co-main event at UFC 253. After an up-and-down start to his UFC career, the 38-year-old has turned things around, going 8-1 over his last nine fights. 

With his Muay Thai stand-up, Blachowicz is a strong technical striker with power in both his punches and kicks, but he’s also an underrated grappler with nine submission wins in his career.

Blachowicz vs Adesanya tale of the tape

Jan Blachowicz   Israel Adesanya
38 Age 31
6-foot-2 Height 6-foot-4
205 lbs Weight 185 lbs
78 inches Reach 80 inches
27-8-0 (4 KO) Record 20-0-0 (4 KO)

Blachowicz vs Adesanya UFC predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Blachowicz to win +215 – Adesanya is an incredible striker and one of MMA’s biggest stars, but oddsmakers and the public might be a tad too bullish on him considering he’s making the move up in weight class – and isn’t bulking up for it.

While Adesanya will have the edge when it comes to speed and technical striking ability, Blachowicz has the advantage when it comes to size, strength and grappling. 

The Last Stylebender may have dismantled heavy-handed fighters like Paulo Costa and Yoel Romero recently, but Blachowicz has better fight IQ than those two. He will make better use of the cage than Romero and is less likely to get picked apart with leg kicks like they were – he’ll probably be landing his own. 

Blachowicz came into his previous title fight as a +225 underdog against a long and athletic fighter with high-level kickboxing in Reyes. But despite Reyes almost getting a decision win against Jones just months earlier, Blachowicz outstruck him 41-21 en route to a TKO win. 

Blachowicz showed he has the tools to defeat Adesanya and with betting odds of +215, which translates to a win probability of 31.8 percent, he has the superior betting value. 

PREDICTION: Blachowicz to win by KO/TKO +460 – Adesanya has a good chin and has never been knocked down, let alone knocked out in an MMA fight. But anybody can get knocked out by a timely punch, as Alex Pereira proved when he starched Adesanya with a left hand in a kickboxing matchup in 2017. 

Despite what it looked like against Costa, The Last Stylebender isn’t unhittable and ate some big shots from Yoel Romero and Kevin Gastelum. 

Now he’s facing an even bigger fighter in Blachowicz who has “legendary Polish power” and three knockout wins in his last four fights. 

Even if you think Adesanya will most likely get the win it might be worth it to sprinkle a little money on this prop at +460. 

PREDICTION: Fight to start Round 3 Yes -134 – Both Adesanya and Blachowicz are coming off second-round TKO wins, but this fight might have a slower start with how dangerous both are when it comes to counter striking. 

Expect these fighters to feel each other out with leg kicks in the early going as they look to find their range and probe for weaknesses. While I think this fight will eventually end in a finish, I don’t see it happening until after the first two rounds. 

Where can I bet on UFC odds?

Most online sportsbooks and casinos offer bets on UFC odds and props. While odds to win usually come out as soon as a fight is announced, prop bets become more readily available closer to an event. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what UFC bets they have available.


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