Breaking Down the Utah Jazz’s Historic ATS Run

Updated: February 17, 2021

The Jazz have been steamrolling teams and have an NBA-best 23-5 record and 21-7 ATS mark. They are winning by an average of 9.4 points per game and have been betting favorites in all but two contests.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

The Utah Jazz are making sweet, sweet NBA betting music this season. Heading into Thursday, the Jazz are not only the NBA’s top team at 23-5 SU but also its best bet at 21-7 against the spread.

That red-hot ATS record has earned +12.663 units for NBA bettors or a windfall of $12,663 if you wagered $100 on each of Utah’s 28 games this season.

Those earnings are bolstered by two winning streaks: an 11-game ATS run between January 8 and January 29 and a current 7-game ATS streak heading into Thursday’s road stop against the Los Angeles Clippers (Utah -4.5).

Utah’s historic ATS run

Combined, the Jazz are 18-2 ATS in the past 20 games (failing to cover in back-to-back outings on January 31 and February 2), which ranks as the second-best 20-game ATS stretch in the past 30 NBA seasons. And, depending on the closing spread used for grading Utah’s 117-105 win over Detroit on February 2 (-12 or -12.5), that mark could be 18-1-1 ATS.  

The 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks own the top 20-game ATS run in that span, posting a 19-1 ATS mark from December 15 to January 21 (a streak that went 20-1 ATS before coming to an end). Those Hawks also strung together 15 consecutive ATS wins – another NBA betting record.

Utah boasted an average margin of victory of 15.6 points during that 11-game ATS stretch versus an average point spread of -5.5. On the year, the Jazz own an average margin of victory of 9.4 points per game and have been betting favorites in all but two of their 28 contests.

Can the Jazz keep covering?

As the momentum builds and the bettors get wise to Utah’s profitable push, oddsmakers will pad those spreads knowing that public money is coming. And once that money comes in, these spreads can make major moves before tipoff.

Take Utah’s current seven-game ATS run for example. The Jazz have faced an average closing spread of -6.6 but those lines opened at an average of -5.3, moving up 1.3 points per game. According to Covers Consensus numbers, Utah garnered an average of 56 percent of bets placed during those seven contests, including 57, 69, and 59 percent of bets in its three most recent outings despite taking on three of the tougher teams in the Eastern Conference in the Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, and Milwaukee Bucks.

Eventually, there will be a tipping point when public perception pushes the spreads too high, opening up value on the other side of the board. It’s going to happen. It always does.

One thing working against that, and for Utah backers, is that the Jazz aren’t a very popular team among casual NBA fans. If the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics had started stringing together ATS wins left and right, you could be sure the public players would be all over it and any value would dry up faster than ShamWow in the middle of the Utah salt flats.  

Looking at the 2014-15 Hawks (another team outside of the NBA public darlings), they opened with a 33-12 ATS record in the first 45 games of the schedule, another NBA betting best.

As Atlanta’s streak gained attention from the betting public, however, the spreads grew and the betting bonanza eventually came to an abrupt halt when the Hawks were installed as 17.5-point home favorites versus Minnesota on January 25, 2015, winning the game 112-100 but falling short of that pile of chalk. That tipped off a 1-4 ATS skid for the Hawks, who also faced lofty spreads of -14 and -16 in that span.

Atlanta would finish the season with a 50-31-1 record against the spread, going 17-19-1 ATS in its final 37 games (then falling flat with a 6-10 ATS mark in the playoffs). The Hawks boasted an average margin of victory of +4.5 points per game that season.

Looking at the all-time best bets in NBA gambling history, the 2009-10 Bucks are at the top of the mountain with a 52-28-2 ATS record in an 82-game season (the 2011-12 San Antonio Spurs went 43-22-1 ATS in a 66-game lockout-shortened schedule).

The Bucks, who covered at an incredible 65 percent clip that year, strung together 10 straight covers and went on an 11-0-1 ATS tear between February 19 and March 12. Milwaukee, which went 46-36 SU, owned an average margin of victory of only +1.3 points per game.

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