Bucks vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions for March 4

Updated: March 3, 2021

The Milwaukee Bucks’ tenacious paint defense and ability to defend the rim will make life hard on Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies’ offense.

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The Milwaukee Bucks are not facing a particularly strong team on Thursday, as they visit the Memphis Grizzlies, which means they are rightfully favored. It’ll be the Bucks’ first game away from home since they returned from a six-game road swing in mid-February.

Milwaukee has been an enigma all season long, beating up on bad teams and then failing to show up against good teams. Will that trend continue with a win in Memphis? Find out in our Bucks vs. Grizzlies picks and predictions for March 4.

Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies betting preview


Bucks: No notable injuries to report.
Grizzlies: Grayson Allen SG (Questionable), Kyle Anderson SF (Questionable), Jaren Jackson Jr. PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Grizzlies.

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The line opened at Bucks -6, with the total at 235. Early action favored the Grizzlies and Over. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Milwaukee, 21-14 SU on the season, heads into Memphis at 17-18 ATS, which is a fair representation of who they have been. Instead of playing up to strong opponents and down to weaker opponents, the Bucks have largely dominated bad teams while playing like also-rans against the NBA’s best. (Granted, they did earn an impressive win against a fully-loaded Clippers team over the weekend, but they followed that up by getting hammered at home against the Nuggets.)

The Grizzlies, 16-15 SU and 17-14 ATS on the year, have been similarly difficult to get a feel for, having gone 6-4 SU and ATS over their last 10. However, even with Jaren Jackson Jr. yet to play this year, Memphis has played some excellent ball recently, with two consecutive wins by a combined margin of 63 points.

The Grizzlies are capable of keeping this one close, but really, the Bucks’ inconsistent form on the year helps us take them here, with a modest line not scaring us off. 

PREDICTION: Bucks -6 (-110)

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Over/Under pick

Despite their inconsistent play in 2021, Milwaukee’s offense has maintained a strong level, as they currently rank Top-5 in offensive rating, offensive efficiency and points per game. That will happen when your engine is an out-of-this-world efficient scorer (at least when he isn’t pulling up for a jumper). Any game with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks’ offense involved will have a decently high total.

That being said, the total here of 235 is a little high. The Grizzlies, 15-16 O/U, are in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating, efficiency and points per game. Though the Bucks have taken a step back defensively this season, they still protect the paint incredibly well, allowing the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game in the NBA. That’s a bad matchup for a Grizzlies team scoring the most points per game in the paint in the NBA, at 55.4. They are at their best when Ja Morant straps on his jet-powered rollerskates and attacks the rim. That will be difficult for Morant against Milwaukee and as a result, the Grizzlies’ offense and the total will take a hit.

PREDICTION: Under 235 (-110)

First half prop

If we’re going to double down on a total, we need a good reason to do so — and we have one here. The Grizzlies own the league’s worst O/U record in the first half of games, at 10-21, and are just 4-13 O/U at home (with an average total of 110.71). With struggles on offense anticipated against Milwaukee’s rim protection, it’s tough to envision that improving. 

The Bucks, meanwhile, are second at 21-12-2 O/U in the first half. However, their standing is boosted by an early-season trend that had us fearing the First-Half Deer. They have been less strong early as of late, 5-5 O/U in the first half in their last 10, with an average total of 114.8. With a first-half total set at 115 and the onus falling on Milwaukee, the road team, for that to go Over, we’ll double down and take the first half Under.

PREDICTION: Under 115 (-110)

Bucks vs Grizzlies betting card

  • Bucks -6 (-110)
  • Under 235 (-110)
  • 1H Under 115 (-110)

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