Croatia vs Spain Euro 2020 Odds, Betting Tips and Predictions

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Updated: June 25, 2021

Spain and Croatia meet in Copenhagen for the Round of 16, with both sides coming off big wins. Despite eight goals between the two in their previous matches, should we expect a low-scoring affair? Read on for our tips and predictions.

Alistair Corp

Posted: Jun 25, 2021 6:06 PM ET Updated: Jun 25, 2021 6:06 PM ET Est Time: 5 min

The Round of 16 at Euro 2020 rolls on in Copenhagen on Monday, with World Cup runners-up Croatia taking on former back-to-back European champions Spain. 

Despite neither team having a great group stage across three matches, Spain are heavy -167 favorites, while Croatia are +500 underdogs. 

Can Croatia upset the former powerhouse? Check out our tips and predictions. 

Game info

Location: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen, Denmark
Date: Monday, June 28, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, TSN

Croatia vs Spain betting tips

  • Draw (+270)
  • Under 2.5 (-125)

Read on for complete analysis

Croatia vs Spain match odds

Croatia: +500
Spain: -167
Draw: +270

Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +100
Under 2.5: -125

Odds as of June 25, 2021, at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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As of Friday afternoon, the line is Croatia +500/Spain -167/Draw +270, with the total at 2.5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Croatia vs Spain betting preview

Weather

It will be a clear, sunny day in Copenhagen for this Round of 16 tie, with temperatures expected around 70 degrees Fahrenheit.

Key injuries

Croatia: Borna Barisic (Out).
Spain: No injuries to report.

Matchup

Croatia   Spain
14 World Ranking 6
4 Goals For 6
3 Goals Against 1
3-1 vs. Scotland Previous Game 5-0 vs. Slovakia
Luka Modric Player to Watch Sergio Busquets

Croatia vs Spain predictions

Moneyline pick

The Round of 16 will be a test of how important recent form is, because oh boy, did Spain deliver a beating in their final group stage. Not only did they carry the play, pass around Slovakia with ease and dominate possession, but they took their chances. For this Spain team, which lacks a bona fide striker, that’s the most important thing. 

Though, for all the positives that game gave Spain, there are still questions that hang over their attack. While they put five past Slovakia and had an xG over 3.0, Alvaro Morata wasn’t one of the goalscorers — but he had a penalty stopped by Martin Dubravka. Ferran Torres has been their most lively attacker in the Euros, and he hasn’t started since the first game. 

Covers Euro 2020 betting analysis

Croatia, while certainly less talented than Spain, share similar concerns. A 1-1 draw against the Czech Republic was the lone time they produced an xG above 1.0, which includes a 3-1 win over Scotland (in which they had an xG of just 0.7). And like Spain, whose tournament could turn on the sudden improvement of their attack, Croatia could become revitalized should Luka Modric round into form. Against Scotland, he looked close to his best in midfield. 

Spain is rightfully favored in this match, but neither side has a cutting edge to it, and there’s little reason to believe Spain will turn heavy possession into production. It’s difficult to see this one decided in 90 minutes. 

PREDICTION: Draw (+270)

Over/Under pick

Only two of six combined group games for Spain and Croatia resulted in Overs on a 2.5 total, with both teams going 1-2 O/U in the group stage. For Spain, that came in their trashing of Slovakia, as they benefitted from the single worst game from a team in the group stage. For Croatia, it came in their 3-1 win over Scotland, highlighted by an improbable Scotland goal from range and a moment of Modric magic. Neither of those instances is particularly repeatable.

Croatia have created just 2.18 expected goals so far in the Euros, which is an accurate representation of their threat — or lack thereof — going forward. Spain, meanwhile, created 4.1 expected goals against Sweden and Poland but ended up with just one goal to show for it. As they do, they will keep possession and try to build methodically against Croatia, but ultimately, they lack a true finisher.

In a tight Round of 16 matchup, take the Under. 

PREDICTION: Under 2.5 (-125)

Picks made on 6/25/2021 at 3:45 p.m. ET

Euro 2020 betting sites

As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.


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