Get Down on Long-Shot Diggs

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Updated: January 21, 2021

The Super Bowl is the biggest sporting event of the year and only the elite will shine brightest on that global stage. Of course, we’re talking about the Most Valuable Player award. 

Betting on the MVP is a massively popular prop market and, with the playoffs heading into the AFC and NFC Championships, Super Bowl MVP odds have been trimmed to the top talents on the four remaining teams for betting at many online sportsbooks. 

Who is the Favorite to Win Super Bowl MVP in 2021?

It should come as no surprise that the quarterbacks for the No. 1 seeds in the AFC and the NFC are the favorites to win the Super Bowl LV MVP award: Patrick Mahomes leads the pack at +300 and Aaron Rodgers follows at +325.

Mahomes, of course, will be looking to win his second consecutive Super Bowl MVP award. And if the Chiefs are to win the Super Bowl this year, you have to think Mahomes will do just that. With the Chiefs currently paying +200 to win the Super Bowl, you might want to take Mahomes at +300 for MVP instead to get a better price if you think Kansas City runs the table in the NFL playoffs. However, his status for the AFC Championship is up in the air after leaving the Divisional Round game versus Cleveland with a concussion. 

Rodgers, the heavy favorite to win NFL MVP and possibly the hottest quarterback on the planet at the moment, also provides some current value if you like the Packers to represent the NFC. Should Green Bay make it to the Super Bowl, Rodgers would be the MVP favorite should any team besides K.C. (with a healthy Mahomes) make it out of the AFC.

Rounding out the Top 6 players on the Super Bowl MVP odds following Divisional Round Weekend are: Josh Allen (+475), Tom Brady (+625), Davante Adams (+1,500), and Tyreek Hill (+1,600). The first defensive players on the MVP odds list are Tyrann Mathieu (+4,000) and Devin White (+5,000).

Current Super Bowl 2021 MVP Odds

Super Bowl 2021 MVP odds started showing up at sportsbooks on January 6, 2021 and are slimmed to players on the Chiefs, Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Buffalo Bills.

You’ll see odds movement throughout the week but the most significant changes to the oddsboards will come on Sunday night or Monday morning, once the playoff games for that weekend are complete.

Player Super Bowl 55 MVP Odds (as of Jan 18)
Patrick Mahomes +300
Aaron Rodgers +325
Josh Allen +475
Tom Brady +675
Davante Adams +1,500
Tyreek Hill +1,600
Travis Kelce +1,800
Stefon Diggs +2,000
Aaron Jones +3,000
Tyrann Mathieu +4,000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +5,000
Devin White +5,000
Ronald Jones II +5,000
Za’Darius Smith +5,000
Darnell Savage +5,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. 

Super Bowl MVP Pick

Patrick Mahomes +300

Taking the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP may seem like a no-brainer but Mahomes at 3/1 is much better than betting Kansas City at 2/1 to win the Super Bowl right now. If the Chiefs are going to repeat as champs, Mahomes will once again be the Most Valuable Player on the field. While his health for the AFC title game is a mystery coming out of the Divisional Round, all signs are pointing to the former Super Bowl MVP being under center versus the Bills.

Super Bowl MVP Long-Shot Pick

Stefon Diggs +2,000

The Bills’ explosive wideout and the NFL’s leader in receiving yards this season is a tasty long shot at 20/1 to win Super Bowl MVP. Diggs is a home run hitter who can take over games. And while the Bills haven’t been overly impressive in their two postseason wins, Diggs is still producing at a high level with 234 total yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs.

Pick made Jan. 18, 2021

How is the Super Bowl MVP decided?

The Super Bowl MVP is decided after the conclusion of the game by a panel of 16 NFL journalists (writers and broadcasters) as well as a fan vote (online and mobile), which was added in 2001. 

The panel makes up 80 percent of the voting while the fan vote makes up the remaining 20 percent. The player voted on as having the most significant impact on their team’s success will be honored as the Most Valuable Player of the Super Bowl.

How to read Super Bowl MVP odds

The Super Bowl MVP odds are displayed in a list format with corresponding odds for each player considered an MVP candidate. The odds will reflect the implied probability of that player winning MVP.

Some sportsbooks will have a very long and detailed list with plenty of players available. Other books will list just the skill positions and key defensive contributors while adding a “field” or “other” option which includes any player not officially listed. 

Most sportsbooks in North America will list Super Bowl MVP odds in American format:

  • Patrick Mahomes +110
  • Jimmy Garropolo +210

This means that a $100 bet on Mahomes would have profited $110, or a $100 bet on Jimmy G would have profited $210. Use our odds converter to switch American odds to decimal or fractional and to see how much you could win using different odds.

Super Bowl MVP betting history

A Super Bowl MVP has been named in all 54 championship games going back to 1967 when Green Bay Packers quarterback Bart Starr was named the very first Super Bowl Most Valuable Player. 

Starr is one of the 30 quarterbacks to be named Super Bowl MVP. Running backs and wide receivers have each won MVP seven times while a defensive player has been named MVP five times and a special teams player (kick returner) has won the award once. 

Betting on the Super Bowl MVP odds was made popular in the late 1990s, as online sports betting began to boom, but has only recently been allowed in regulated land-based sportsbooks (such as Las Vegas/Nevada) since 2016.

Super Bowl MVP winner MVP odds Position
54 Patrick Mahomes  +110 QB
53 Julian Edelman +2000 WR
52 Nick Foles +325 QB
51 Tom Brady +150 QB
50 Von Miller +2200 LB
49 Tom Brady +160 QB
48 Malcolm Smith +2000 LB
47 Joe Flacco +250 QB
46 Eli Manning +210 QB
45 Aaron Rodgers +175 QB
44 Drew Brees +180 QB
43 Santonio Holmes NA WR
42 Eli Manning NA QB
41 Peyton Manning NA QB
40 Hines Ward NA WR
39 Deion Branch NA WR
38 Tom Brady NA QB
37 Dexter Jackson NA CB
36 Tom Brady NA QB
35 Ray Lewis NA LB
34 Kurt Warner NA QB
33 John Elway NA QB
32 Terrell Davis NA QB
31 Desmond Howard NA KR
30 Larry Brown NA CB
29 Steve Young NA QB
28 Emmitt Smith NA RB
27 Troy Aikman NA QB
26 Mark Rypien NA QB
25 Ottis Anderson NA RB
24 Joe Montana NA QB
23 Jerry Rice NA QB
22 Doug Williams NA QB
21 Phil Simms NA QB
20 Richard Dent NA DE
19 Joe Montana NA QB
18 Marcus Allen NA RB
17 John Riggins NA RB
16 Joe Montana NA QB
15 Jim Plunkett NA QB
14 Terry Bradshaw NA QB
13 Terry Bradshaw NA QB
12 Harvey Martin & Randy White NA DE/DT
11 Fred Biletnikoff NA WR
10 Lynn Swann NA WR
9 Franco Harris NA RB
8 Larry Csonka NA FB
7 Jake Scott NA S
6 Roger Staubach NA QB
5 Chuck Howley NA LB
4 Len Dawson NA QB
3 Joe Namath NA QB
2 Bart Starr NA QB
1 Bart Starr NA QB

Super Bowl MVP betting tips & strategies

Like betting on any Super Bowl odds, there is some strategy involved when betting the Super Bowl MVP prop. 

Set a narrative

When it comes to all of your Super Bowl bets – sides, totals, props – you should set a narrative for how you see the game playing out and what has to happen in order to follow that path. If you’re betting on the team with the explosive passing game, you know the receivers will need to be a big part of that success. Therefore, you may want to look at the quarterback or wide receivers in the Super Bowl MVP odds.

Bet early

The Super Bowl is the biggest betting event of the year and the odds are drum-tight across the board. That means any hidden value is sniffed out quickly and bet hard, forcing bookmakers to adjust those numbers. The Super Bowl MVP odds often see major line movement between opening and closing, so don’t wait too long to get in your MVP bets. 

Risk vs reward

The quarterback for the Super Bowl favorite is most often the frontrunner to win MVP. And while that team’s moneyline odds (odds to win the game) may not pose the biggest return, you can often get a better bang for your buck by betting the QB’s MVP odds instead. 

While there is a risk that the quarterback may not win MVP, that position has earned Big Game honors almost 56 percent of the time and in eight of the past 11 Super Bowls. 

As an example, Kansas City was a -130 favorite to win Super Bowl LIV and Patrick Mahomes was +110 to win MVP. A $100 bet on Kansas City -130 would win just under $77. But a $100 bet on Patrick Mahomes to win MVP at +110 would win $110.

Which sportsbooks offer Super Bowl MVP odds?

All of the best Super Bowl betting sites will offer Super Bowl MVP odds. However, the players listed as well as their respective odds will vary slightly from book to book, so it’s a good idea to shop around for the best odds before making your bet.

Instant replay: Super Bowl MVP odds

Super Bowl MVP odds are one of the most bet props for the Big Game. Here are some key things to remember:

Super Bowl MVP odds FAQs

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