Heat vs Rockets Picks and Predictions for February 11

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Updated: February 11, 2021

The Miami Heat are 4-2 SU since Jimmy Butler returned to the lineup, but they have only covered the spread in two of those six contests.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat continue to try to climb out of the early-season hole it dug itself when they visit the Houston Rockets tonight in an intriguing NBA betting matchup.

The Heat have won four of six games since Jimmy Butler rejoined the lineup but have covered just two of those games, while the Rockets have been struggling lately to win in general. NBA odds have made Miami a slim road favorite, with a low total set for these two offensively inept clubs.

We break down this matchup and give you our best free NBA picks and predictions for Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets on Thursday, February 11, which tip-off set for 7:30 p.m. ET.  

Miami Heat at Houston Rockets Betting Preview

Injuries

Heat: Maurice Harkless F (Questionable), Goran Dragic PG (Out), Avery Bradley G (Out). 
Rockets: John Wall G (Probable), Christian Wood C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Under is 21-5-1 in the Rockets’ last 27 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Rockets.

The line opened at Miami -2.5, with the total at 218.5. Early action back Houston, shifting the spread to Miami -2 and the Over/Under nudged up to 219.5 before plummeting to 216. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Against the Spread (ATS) Pick

The Miami Heat are finally starting to show signs of life after an injury-plagued start to the season, winning three straight games going 4-2 SU in their last six, including a home-and-home sweep of the New York Knicks. While this improved play has coincided with the return of Jimmy Butler, it does need to be said that Miami has only covered the spread in two of those games and has not beaten a team above .500 during this stretch. In fact, the Heat are just 1-8 SU (3-6 ATS) against teams currently with a winning record this season.

The good news for the Heat, however, is that they’re facing a Houston Rockets team tonight that A) does not have a winning record and B) is currently mired in an ugly stretch of basketball.

Houston is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games, with its last two losses coming by 29 and 25 points, respectively. The biggest culprit to Houston’s plight? Terrible, terrible 3-point shooting. The Rockets are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc this season as a team – eighth-worst in the league – but in their last four losses, they’ve been firing at a 28.7 percent clip (50 for 174).

Compounding that poor shooting has been an inability to gather rebounds, as with breakout big man Christian Wood sidelined the past three games (and out tonight), Houston has been beaten on the glass 150-122.

This is just the second home game for Houston in its last eight games, but it isn’t exactly a safe haven as the Rockets are 3-7 ATS on their home court this year. While Miami is by no means a perfect team, they are improving and have shown they can beat lower-end teams right now—and Houston is playing like a lower-end team. Give me the Heat with the points.

PREDICTION: Miami -2 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

One of Miami’s calling cards has been tenacious defense, as it gives up the seventh-fewest points per game this season and holds foes to just 44.7 percent shooting from the field (fifth-best mark in the NBA). The Heat really stepped up lately, however, allowing opponents to top 110 points just once in their last nine games.

Houston sits ninth in points allowed on the year and yielded just 104.4 points per game over a 10-game stretch prior to its two most recent ugly defeats, where it gave up a combined 249 points.

Both teams also struggle to score, as Miami is 27th in scoring and Houston is 23rd, plus the Under has hit in four of the Heat’s last six games and four of Houston’s last five contests. Since Butler returned, Miami is averaging 107.8 points in regulation, while the Rockets have scored more than 106 points once in their last five—including two sub-100-point efforts.

It’s a low total for this game, but these teams really struggle to score—as evidenced by a sharp drop in the O/U to 216. We’re still backing the Under, but grab it now before it drops any further.

PREDICTION: Under 216 (-110)

Player Prop Pick

We discussed earlier how the Rockets have been outrebounded since Wood went down, as their only true remaining big man is former All-Star DeMarcus Cousins. At first glance you’d think Boogie would have a plum matchup against a Miami team that is dead last in the NBA in overall rebounds per game, but looking at rebounding rate paints a different picture.

Miami grabs 48.7 percent of all available rebounds this season, a number that’s just 22nd in the Association but is still better than Houston’s 27th-ranked 48.2 percent mark. Over each team’s last three games, the Heat have actually improved to 49.7 percent, while the Rockets are down to an NBA-worst 45.1 percent.

Cousins’ rebounding total for tonight is 8.5, a threshold he’s topped just twice in his last eight games. With recent numbers suggesting Houston will struggle to grab what rebounds will be available, going Under on Boogie’s boards total is too good to pass up…especially at plus money.

PREDICTION: DeMarcus Cousins Under 8.5 rebounds (+104)

Heat vs Rockets Betting Card

  • Miami -2 (-110)
  • Under 216 (-110)
  • DeMarcus Cousins Under 8.5 rebounds (+104)

NBA Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Heat vs. Rockets picks, you could win $64.35 on a $10 bet?

Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where Can I Bet on the NBA?

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