Heat vs Warriors Picks and Predictions for February 17

The Miami Heat continue their long West Coast road trip against the all-of-the-sudden “scrappy” Golden State Warriors. 

The Heat have dropped two in a row and now have to deal with the red-hot Steph Curry, who has led the Warriors to wins in three of their last four games. Even so, oddsmakers have this matchup as close to a coin flip, setting the Dubs 1-point home favorites.

So, who has the edge? Find out what we are betting in our NBA free picks and predictions for Heat vs. Warriors on Wednesday, February 17, with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors betting preview

Injuries

Heat: Goran Dragic G (Out), Chris Silva F (Out), Avery Bradley G (Out), Meyers Leonard C (Out).
Warriors: James Wiseman C (Out), Kevon Looney C (Out), Marqueses Chriss F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs Warriors.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Steph Curry is looking like his MVP self. Over his last 10 games, Curry is averaging 34.5 points while shooting 51.2 percent from 3-point range. But what has made the Warriors scrappy, not to mention a tough out over that 10-game span, has been because of their play on the other end of the floor.

The Warriors rank second in the NBA in defensive rating and lead the league in opponent field goal percentage over that span. Now, they play a Heat team that is looking a little gassed on offense as of late.

Over the Heat’s last 10 games, they rank 27th in scoring at just 107.3 points per contest and 20th in effective field goal percentage. On top of that, the Heat are playing sloppy. Over that same 10-game stretch, the Heat are second-to-last in turnover percentage. 

With a cooking Curry and an improved defense, we like the Warriors to win and cover at home against a Heat team that will also be missing Goran Dragic.

PREDICTION: Warriors -1 (-110)

Over/Under pick

The total for this matchup sits at 223 as of Wednesday afternoon, and with the way these teams are playing, that number looks a little high.

While the Heat are cold on offense, they are still playing tough at the defensive end of the floor and should be able to give a Warriors team problems that struggles to get consistent scoring outside of Curry. Miami ranks 11th in defensive rating, and seventh in scoring defense, giving up 110.1 points per contest. 

On top of that, thanks to the Warriors’ defensive resurgence, the Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games, while it’s 5-1 in the Heat’s last six games as an underdog. Mix in Miami’s offensive issues and this one should stay below the number.

PREDICTION: Under 223 (-110)

Player Prop Pick

While the Warriors are doing a lot of things well on defense, they still have issues when it comes to rebounding. Golden State ranks 28th in rebounding percentage and 29th in total opponent rebounds per game. It doesn’t help that seemingly every Warriors big man is on the injury report, but that could create some opportunities for Miami’s Kelly Olynyk.

The Heat big man is averaging 5.8 rebounds for the season, so his rebounding total of 5.5 seems reasonable. But that number is up to 7.3 boards over his last eight games, topping this total five times over that eight-game stretch. With the prop getting around even money, we like Olynyk to clean up the glass in this one.

PREDICTION: Kelly Olynyk Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100)

Heat vs Warriors betting card

• Warriors -1 (-110)
• Under 223 (-110)
• Kelly Olynyk Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100)

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