High-scoring June gives way to Over boom for MLB betting

Updated: June 29, 2016


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Major League Baseball hitters could be finally finding their swing and catching up to their counterparts on the mound, or they could be taking the “Superman” approach and boosting their power thanks to the summer sun. Whatever the reason, baseball bats are suddenly red hot and MLB Over bettors are burning books because of it.

The Over has been building up bankrolls recently, with the last seven days of baseball action producing a 57-36-3 Over/Under mark (61.29 percent Overs) including a 16-7-3 O/U record in the previous two days heading into Wednesday’s schedule. 

Since June 22, MLB games are averaging 10.45 combined runs scored against an average closing total (Over/Under) of 8.66 runs – blasting that number by almost two runs an outing. Teams are hitting a collective .277 BA during this stretch, which is well above the season batting average of .255.

Overall, June has generated an uptick in scoring for the 2016 MLB season. Clubs plated an average of 4.16 runs per game in April and 4.5 runs per game in May. So far this month, teams are scoring 4.76 runs per game – 9.52 total runs per contest – and hitting .263 BA compared to .249 in April and .254 in May. 

Those numbers have the 2016 campaign on pace to be the highest scoring MLB season since 2009, with 8.92 total runs per game. That’s produced a collective 575-527-57 Over/Under record through the first three months of the calendar, slightly leaning toward the Over at a 52.18 percent clip.

This goes against the recent trend in baseball, with scores dropping season after season. From 2009 to 2015, the average total runs scored per game plummeted from 9.22 to 8.5 with 2014 being the lowest scoring season in that span at 8.14 – the fewest amount of runs scored since 1981 (8.00).

Like most trends over the course of the 162-game baseball season, totals tend to level off. With July up next, total bettors may want to jump on the Over in final days of June before the calendar flips to what has typically been an ‘Under’ month for MLB betting.

Last season, MLB games in July averaged 8.22 runs versus an average betting total of 7.70, but still finished at 169-184-24 Over/Under – 52 percent Unders. And since 2012, MLB games in July have gone 669-786-72 O/U, for a 54 percent Under rate.

Currently, just 10 of the 30 MLB clubs have played more to the Under than the Over in 2016. Last year finished with 13 teams leaning to the Under on the season.

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