LSU vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions for SEC Championship March 14

Updated: March 13, 2021

Alabama has proven to be the SEC’s best team this season and can end an SEC Tournament drought that dates back to 1991 with a victory over LSU.

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Either the LSU Tigers or Alabama Crimson Tide will end an SEC Tournament Championship drought when they face off.

Alabama hasn’t made it to the championship game since 2002, last winning in 1991. It’s been even longer for LSU, who hasn’t been in the tourney title game since 1987 and hasn’t won it since 1980. The Tide are the favorites in college basketball betting to end that drought, laying 5-points, but they’ll be in tough against the high-octane Tigers.

Check out our best LSU vs. Alabama free picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Sunday, March 14, with tipoff at 1:00 p.m. ET.

LSU vs Alabama odds

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Oddsmakers opened with Alabama getting 5-points of chalk, with the total hitting the board at 158.5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide betting preview


LSU: Shareef O’Neal F (Out).
Alabama: Joshua Primo G (Questionable).

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Betting trend to know

The favorite is 20-5-1 in the last 26 meetings between LSU and Alabama. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Alabama.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

LSU got to the SEC Tournament Championship Game by outlasting Ole Miss 76-73 as 1-point chalk in the quarterfinals and followed that up by outgunning Arkansas 78-71, winning their semifinals matchup outright as 3.5-point underdogs.

With the two tournament wins, the Tigers have won four in a row and seven of their last nine overall, looking like an offensive juggernaut in the process. LSU is averaging 83.6 points per game over that span, and has risen to sixth in the country according to KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rating.

But the key to this matchup is, how will that offense fare against arguably the best defense in the nation, as Alabama ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

The Crimson Tide had to gut out a 73-68 win over Tennessee in the semifinals, narrowly covering the 4-point chalk, but absolutely demolished Mississippi State 85-48 in the quarters, easily covering as 7.5-point favorites. Overall, Bama has won five in a row and eight of its last nine. But the Tide are more than just defense, ranking 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency as well.

Alabama also took both meetings against LSU this season, hammering the Tigers by 30 points as 1-point road faves in Baton Rouge back on Jan. 19 and followed that up with an efficient 78-60 win as 8.5-point home chalk on Feb. 3. 

So, Alabama knows it has the tools to shut down the sharp-shooting Tigers, but what makes Alabama dangerous is that they can beat you in so many ways on offense. While they are the best 3-point shooting team in the SEC, they hit just 25 percent of their attempts against Tennessee and still managed to win. 

Mix in a shaky LSU defense and backing Bama is the way to go. Roll Tide.

PREDICTION: Alabama -5 (-110)

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Over/Under pick

The total for the SEC Championship Game hit the board at 158.5 and at first glance that seems rather high for a game that involves arguably the best defense in the country. But, a deeper dive into the numbers shows that number may not be off by too much.

In the first meeting between the Tigers and Tide, they were saddled with a total of 165, and thanks to a 105-point offensive outburst from Alabama, they cruised over that number by 14 points. In the second matchup, Bama held LSU to its lowest output of the season, just 60 points, resulting in them staying Under the 164 total by a big 26 points.

Alabama plays at one of the highest paces in the country and will get their chances against an LSU team that ranks 125th in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Tide aren’t the greatest shooting team and can get cold at times, and their scoring average is down to 74.5 points over their last six games, where the Under is 5-1.

While you have to respect the LSU offense, their scoring average is down to 77 points in the SEC tourney and Alabama has the tools to slow them down. The Under looks like a sneaky good bet here.

PREDICTION: Under 158.5 (-110)

LSU vs Alabama betting card

  • Alabama -5 (-110)
  • Under 158.5 (-110)

NCAA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA LSU vs. Alabama picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on college basketball?

You can bet on college basketball odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NCAA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of prop odds. Head over to our best sportsbooks for college basketball betting in your area.

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