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March Madness Upsets – Top 10 Betting Upsets
By Matt Cash
Updated: March 1, 2021
Mar 1, 2021 – 8:03 AM ET
If there’s one thing March Madness is known for it’s the upsets. It seems like every NCAA Tournament features a few surprise results in the opening two rounds, as lesser-known mid-major teams take down some of the higher-ranked power conference programs in the country.
March Madness upsets are a huge reason why basketball fans love betting on the NCAA Tournament, and we recap the biggest NCAA Tournament shockers of the past two decades, according to the point spreads.
Ten biggest betting upsets in March Madness history
These 10 infamous March Madness upsets not only busted their share of brackets but also blew up the bankrolls of those who bet against these all-time great NCAA Tournament underdogs.
The 10 biggest March Madness upsets since 2000:
No. 10: Duke vs Indiana (+13) 2002 / Duke vs Mercer (+13) 2014
Funny enough, a pair of Duke losses tie for the 10th biggest upsets since 2000. It’s even funnier if you’re among the legions of Duke haters.
The No. 1 Blue Devils blew a 17-point lead to lose 74-73 to the No. 5 Hoosiers in the Sweet 16 of the 2002 tournament – a finish best known for Jay Williams missing the free throw on a potential game-winning 4-point play.
Twelve years later, the No. 3 Dukies were stunned 78-71 by No. 14 Mercer in the Round of 64 with the little-known Bears out of the Atlantic Sun Conference cashing in as +850 moneyline underdogs. This upset was just two years removed from the Blue Devils’ loss to Lehigh as 11.5-point chalk in the opening round of the 2012 tournament.
No. 9: Wichita State vs Marshall (+13.5) 2018
The No. 4 Shockers were established March Madness mavens at this point, garnering a lofty 13.5-point spread versus No. 13 Marshall. The Thundering Herd exploded out of the break and dropped 47 points in the final 20 minutes of the game to win 81-75.
No. 8: Georgetown vs Ohio (+13.5) 2010
The No. 4 Hoyas couldn’t employ their methodical offense and got run out of the gym by the up-tempo Bobcats, who scored 97 points en route to this No. 14 over No. 4 upset. Ohio paid out at +900 on the moneyline.
No. 7: Georgetown vs Florida Gulf Coast (+13.5) 2013
The Hoyas didn’t learn their lesson from four years earlier and found themselves in a pace mismatch with one of the most exciting teams in college hoops that season. The No. 15 Eagles lived up to their nickname “Dunk City” and wore the wheels off No. 2 Georgetown with 54 points in the second half.
No. 6: Iowa State vs UAB (+14) 2015
No. 14 UAB was a near +1,000 moneyline underdog for its Round of 64 date with No. 3 ISU. The Cyclones just couldn’t get right and finished with only 59 points after ranking ninth in scoring on the season. It was their lowest single-game output all year. That’s bad timing.
No. 5: Kansas vs Bucknell (+14) 2005
The No. 3 Jayhawks went 1 for 11 from beyond the arc and turned the ball over 13 times, leading to one of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time. The No. 14 Bison, out of the Patriot League, cashed in as +820 moneyline long shots with their 64-63 victory over KU.
No. 4: Michigan State vs Middle Tennessee State (+16.5) 2016
The No. 15 Blue Raiders sparked the shredding of brackets everywhere when they KO’d tournament favorite No. 2 Michigan State in the opening round of the 2016 Big Dance. Middle Tennessee State won 90-81 with 33 of those points coming from 3-point land and was around a +2,000 moneyline underdog to win outright. Many books didn’t even bother posting outright odds, with MSU as high as -9,000 ($100 bet would win $1.11).
No. 3: Iowa State vs Hampton (+17.5) 2001
The No. 2 Cyclones suffered another power outage in this opening-round flop against No. 14 Hampton. Iowa State went 6 for 16 from the foul line and coughed the ball up 17 times in a dismal 58-57 loss to the MEAC champion Pirates.
No. 2: Virginia vs UMBC (+20.5) 2018
This upset marked the first time a No. 1 seed lost to a No. 16 in the history of the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers’ methodical tempo got in trouble when UMBC went on a 20-6 run in the first five minutes of the second half. Virginia didn’t have the pace or firepower to battle back and lost 74-54 – an incredible 40.5-point cover by the underdog.
That surprising result not only busted brackets and burned UVA backers, but also torched a ton of live bets banking on the Cavs to complete the comeback. The Retrievers were pegged as high as +2,500 moneyline underdogs at some Las Vegas sportsbooks.
“You’re trying to realize that (No. 1 vs. No. 16) was 132-0 coming into the tournament,” Mikal McCulley, who bet $100 on UMBC at +2,000 (winning $2,000), told Covers back in 2018. “And I’m holding a ticket for the first time it happens. That was the only moneyline bet we had on an underdog.”
“It’d be worth more to me in 30 years, and the story that goes along with it if I don’t cash it, than the $2,000,” McCulley said of his plans for the winning bet. “Right now, I’m just gonna hold it. It has to be the best ticket ever, when you hold the first-ever No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed.”
No. 1: Missouri vs Norfolk State (+21) 2012
The Grand Daddy of all March Madness betting upsets saw the No. 2 Tigers ousted in the opening round of the 2012 tournament by the No. 15 Spartans out of the MEAC, who paid out as +4,500 underdogs on the moneyline ($4,500 win on a $100 bet).
Norfolk State played a near-perfect game, shooting 62.5 percent in the second half and turning the ball over only 11 times versus Missouri’s famed pressure defense. The Spartans opened the game on a 15-7 run and never allowed the Tigers to get more than four points ahead on the scoreboard in the back-and-forth contest.
“We were looking for a big long-shot to bet, and the odds on Norfolk State seemed too high,” Derek Daniels, who bet $40 on Norfolk State at 45/1 odds (winning $1,800), told Covers back in 2012. “Everybody near the counter laughed when we made the bet, including ourselves. We still can’t believe it hit.”
Tips for predicting March Madness upsets
When looking for teams to circle as having the potential to pull off an upset, here are a few factors to consider:
Strength of non-conference schedule
Most March Madness upsets involve schools from smaller conferences, so it’s tough to measure the level of competition. However, many mid-majors will take on power-conference opponents during non-conference play at the beginning of the schedule. Go over any early games against notable opponents and see how those small schools held up.
Pace mismatches
Pace and tempo are big X-factors that have played into plenty of March Madness upsets. Get a grasp on a team’s style of play and how it clashes with its opponent, and whether it can impose that pace and style in the opening matchups.
3-point and foul shooting
For a March Madness upset to occur, the underdog usually has to play near-perfect basketball. That means making big shots and not leaving any points on the table. A number of notable NCAA Tournament shockers have been fueled by hot hands beyond the arc and solid free-throw shooting. Measure those two metrics when scanning for potential upsets.
Sleeper Superstars
Fans of March Madness can likely name some small-conference stars from years past off the top of their heads (Ali Farokhmanesh anyone?). Those lesser-known talents jumped into the national spotlight following notable NCAA Tournament upsets but had been making plays for their respective programs all season long. Sometimes having the best player on the floor is all you need to spark a Big Dance shocker, so take a close look at the big guns from the small conferences.
March Madness upsets FAQs
What was the biggest upset in March Madness history?
In 2012, Norfolk State upset Missouri as 21-point underdogs in what we feel was the biggest upset in March Madness history.
Has a 16 seed ever beat a 1?
Yes, UMBC became the first and only No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 when it defeated Virginia 74-54 in the opening round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
Has a 15 seed ever beat a 2?
Yes, eight No. 15 seeds have beaten No. 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
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