Mavericks vs Heat NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions May 4

Updated: May 4, 2021

Goran Dragic has been upping his offensive efforts with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo – two of Miami’s best backcourt scorers – sidelined.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

The reigning Eastern Conference champs are making sure everyone remembers just who they are with a late-season surge. The Miami Heat ride a three-game winning streak into Tuesday’s home date with the Dallas Mavericks.

The Heat sit sixth in the Eastern Conference but have a real chance of finishing as high as fourth if they continue their winning ways. Miami has won seven of its last nine outings, going 6-2-1 against the NBA betting spreads. The Mavericks are also sixth in the West and chasing for the No. 5 spot.

Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Heat on May 4.

Mavericks vs Heat odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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Miami opened at -3.5 and jumped as high as -4 at some books before coming down to -3. The total opened at 214.5 points and climbed as high as 216.5 before buyback on the Under ticked the number down to 215.5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Mavericks vs Heat betting preview


Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis F (Doubtful), Maxi Kleber F (Questionable).
Heat: Tyler Herro G (Out), Victor Oladipo G (Out), Andre Iguodala F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 19-7 in Mavericks’ last 26 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Heat.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Momentum can mean everything at this time of the year and Miami is oozing it like South Beach oozes coconut tanning oil. 

The Heat own an average margin of victory of 6.4 points per game during this nine-game frame, and while a few of those wins came against some cupcake opponents, Miami started this stretch with a win over Brooklyn and has held up against the oddsmakers’ expectations, despite missing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.

Much like its run to the 2020 NBA Finals, Miami’s success is anchored in defense. The Heat have allowed only 104.8 points per game in this nine-game stretch and face a Dallas offense still figuring out its identity this late in the schedule. 

The Mavericks aren’t the record-setting scoring attack of last season and have watched their production go up and down over the past month, coming off a 99-point “down” performance in a loss to Sacramento on Sunday in which the Mavs made just 6 of 35 from beyond the arc. Those shortcomings from distance can manifest themselves into scoring lulls for Dallas, which has a bad habit of extended droughts on offense. 

This Miami defense is not the squad you want to try and get right against. And with Kristaps Porzingis listed as doubtful, the Heat can focus on stopping Luka Doncic, who’s logged a lot of minutes as he lugs the Mavs to the finish line.

PREDICTION: Miami -3.5 (-110)

Covers NBA betting analysis

Over/Under pick

Not having Porzingis on the court takes the bite out of Dallas’ vaunted pick-and-roll attack. 

The Mavericks are among the best in points per play in both production from the ball hander and screener options in those sets. But without the 7-foot unicorn creating mismatches off the pick-and-roll, the offense can’t expose their foes’ soft spots.

Even if Porzingis grits it out, Miami enters as one of the better pick-and-roll defenses in the NBA – ranked No. 2 vs. ballhandler and No. 5 vs. screener – and also have the shutdown defenders to matchup on Doncic in isolation. The Heat will toss a mix of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo at the Mavs superstar when the shot clock starts ticking down.

Miami’s offense will also take some of the gas out of Dallas’ tank, playing one of the more methodical paces in the NBA. During this nine-game tear, the Heat have required opponents to wear a CPAP machine, playing at a snore-inducing 94.72 pace rating – lowest in the NBA – and posting just over 111 points per contest.

The Heat may be on a six-game Over run but will keep the Mavericks in check and stay below the total tonight.

PREDICTION: Under 216 (-110)

Player prop pick

With injuries to Herro and Oladipo leaving Miami thin in the backcourt, veteran guard Goran Dragic has stepped up his offensive efforts. 

Dragic averaged almost 12 points per game in April and had a pair of 18-point efforts in his last three games, including Sunday’s victory over Charlotte. 

His minutes have spiked since Herro went down, tallying 30, 29, 28 and 35 minutes of floor time in his last four outings. Tuesday’s point total is set at 13.5 which is pretty much right on his scoring average over the last nine games.

PREDICTION: Goran Dragic points Over 13.5 (-110)

Mavericks vs Heat betting card

  • Miami -3.5 (-110)
  • Under 216 (-110)
  • Goran Dragic points Over 13.5 (-110)

Picks made on 5/4/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET

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