Mets vs Cardinals MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions May 4

Updated: May 4, 2021

Jacob deGrom is off to a phenomenal start, with 59 strikeouts and a 0.51 ERA through five starts, but he needs the Mets’ batters to start rewarding him.

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At this point, Jacob deGrom’s season almost falls under the category of satire. The right-hander is the most dominant pitcher in baseball, yet the New York Mets are just 2-3 in his starts and are lucky to be that.

The Mets have fired their hitting coaches in hopes of jump-starting an offense that has been as formidable as a protocol droid trying to fight Jedi in a lightsaber duel. Will the force be with the Mets when they open a series with the St. Louis Cardinals?

Check out our MLB betting free picks and predictions for Mets vs. Cardinals on Tuesday, May 4, with first pitch scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET.

Mets vs Cardinals odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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The Cardinals opened this National League matchup as +170 home underdogs and have since moved to +180. The total hit the board at a Jacob deGrom special of 6.5. Early action favored TEAM and Over/Under. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Mets vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jacob deGrom (2-2, 0.51 ERA): He good. That’s literally all you should need at this point. deGrom is the most dominant pitcher since Pedro Martinez in his prime. The right-hander now regularly touches 100 on the radar gun with a fastball that is unfair, and has punched out 59 batters in his first five starts.

Johan Oviedo (0-0, 2.79 ERA): Oviedo is the Cardinals No. 9 prospect and is making his second start (third appearance) of the season, and has performed pretty well. The right-hander has a good mix of pitches, including a four-seamer that averages 96 miles per hour and a pretty devastating slider.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Edwin Diaz RP (Questionable), Brandon Nimmo (Questionable), J.D. Davis 3B (Out), Dellin Betances RP (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out).
Cardinals: Jordan Hicks RP (Questionable), Yadier Molina C (Out), Andrew Miller RP (Out), Daniel Ponce de Leon RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 3-1-1 in Jacob deGrom’s starts this season and 4-2-1 in the Cardinals’ last seven games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals.

Run line pick

We always talk about the Los Angeles Angels wasting Mike Trout seasons, but the Mets are entering that conversation with Jacob deGrom. The right-hander’s season is bordering on parody at this point and he is, bar none, the best pitcher in baseball — and yet his team routinely makes him sweat out results. 

That is in large part because the Mets can’t hit a lick at the moment, ranking 29th in scoring and 29th in batting average with runners in scoring position. It doesn’t help that All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor is hitting just .163 for the season. 

So, they have fired their hitting coaches in hopes of turning things around. The funny thing is, the Mets have been a bit better lately, plating 18 runs over the last three games. 

That lineup will face Oviedo, who has been solid in his limited work for the Cardinals this season but did give up three runs on three hits in five innings in his lone start of the season against the Phillies. 

This is an extremely difficult game to pick a side on. It is almost impossible to fade deGrom, but at the same time, it’s difficult to trust the Mets at a two-dollar price tag. Take the Mets on the run line but be prepared for a game-long sweat.

PREDICTION: Mets -1.5 (-110)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under pick

The total for this game is an unsurprisingly low 6.5, considering deGrom is on the bump and the Mets’ aversion to scoring. So, while this number is low, it’s hard to have confidence backing the Over.

First of all, it doesn’t matter who deGrom goes against, he can stuff them down. The Cardinals are no exception. Not to mention the fact the Cards are much worse when it comes to hitting against right-handers, with a .217 average against righties for the season. 

Secondly, Oviedo has some decent stuff that should play against the Mets’ lineup, and if he does get in trouble, he hands the ball to one of the most underrated bullpens in baseball. St. Louis relievers limit opponents to a .189 batting average, the second-best mark in the MLB.

Just like the side get ready to be uncomfortable. Bet the Under. Prepare for a sweat. 

PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (-110)

Mets vs Cardinals betting card

  • Mets -1.5 (-110)
  • Under 6.5 (-110)

Picks made on 5/4/2021 at 1:05 p.m. ET

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