Michigan State vs Michigan Picks and Predictions for March 4

Updated: March 4, 2021

The Spartans are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games, which includes impressive wins against Illinois and Ohio State. They enter as 12-point underdogs against the rival Wolverines.

The Michigan Spartans and Michigan Wolverines add another chapter to their historic rivalry this week as they close out their regular season with a pair of games. 

The first contest will take place on Thursday night in Ann Arbor as the Wolverines try to bounce back from a rare, embarrassing loss while the Spartans look to finish their season strong and book a ticket to March Madness. 

We bring you our best free Michigan State vs. Michigan picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Thursday, March 4, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET. 

Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines betting preview


Michigan State: Foster Loyer G (Questionable).
Michigan: Isaiah Livers F (Questionable).

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Betting trend to know

The Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these Big 10 rivals. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan.

The line opened at Michigan -13, with the total at 140. Early action favored MSU and the Under, moving the line to Michigan -12 and the Over/Under to 139.5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Wolverines have been downright dominant this season but are coming off a humiliating 76-53 loss to Illinois. While the Fighting Illini have a very good team, they were missing their best player in that contest and there’s simply no excuse when you lose by 23 at home as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.

Although Michigan’s second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, he continued to play after rolling his ankle on Tuesday and coach Juwan Howard said he wasn’t concerned about it. 

Despite that defeat, the Wolverines are still 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS this season. But it won’t be easy to cover a double-digit spread against a rival like MSU.

The Spartans are playing their best ball of the season, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games, which includes impressive wins against Illinois and Ohio State. 

While they have struggled on the road all season, the Spartans will be playing with desperation this week with an at-large NCAA Tournament bid at stake. 

With so much riding on tonight’s game (as well as their meeting in Lansing on Sunday), expect the Spartans to come out with lots of energy. They might not be able to win against a terrific Michigan squad looking to bounce back, but they should be able to keep this contest closer than 12 points. 

PREDICTION: Michigan State +12 (-110)

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Over/Under Pick

The Spartans tendency to go ice-cold from the field has often doomed their chances of winning on the road this year. They are averaging just 65.5 ppg on 38.5 percent shooting in away games.

Tom Izzo’s squad will have a tough time putting the ball in the hoop against a Wolverines squad that holds foes to just 64.8 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting at the Crisler Center. 

That said, the Wolverines are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season, shooting just 35 percent from the field and connecting on two shots from beyond the arc. While regression to the mean should mean better efficiency tonight, they haven’t looked quite as dominant on the offensive end of the floor since returning on Valentine’s Day from a three-week shutdown.

Both teams also play at a slower pace and Tom Izzo’s squad will no doubt up the defensive intensity in a crucial rivalry game. 

The Under is 6-1 in Michigan’s last seven games, while also cashing in 10 of the Spartans previous 14 contests. Back it again in Ann Arbor. 

PREDICTION: Under 139.5 (-110)

Michigan State vs Michigan betting card

  • Michigan State +12 (-110)
  • Under 139.5 (-110)

NCAA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA Michigan State vs. Michigan picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on college basketball?

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