MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions for April 30

Updated: April 30, 2021

Fresh off a “no hitter”, Madison Bumgarner gets to follow up against a Rockies lineup that, as usual, is struggling to convert on the road.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

If you’re doing any MLB betting this Friday you’ll have to check out one of our favorite MLB prop bets of the last three years. That’s right TGIBF: Thank God it’s Bieber Fever as Cleveland ace Shane Bieber takes to the mound. 

We lean towards some of our other favorite bets over the last few years as we back a team that typically murders the ball while fading another club that can’t hit a lick on the road.  

Here are our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Friday, April 30.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-133)

In one of the biggest surprises of the early season, the New York Yankees apparently forgot how to mash. While the entire big leagues are stinking it up at the plate, it’s especially shocking that one of the best offensive teams over the last few years, with an incredibly loaded lineup, is averaging just 3.68 runs per game with an OPS of .679. 

That said, this Yankees squad is simply too talented and proven to be limited for the entire season, and today presents them with the perfect opportunity to get back on track against the woeful Detroit Tigers. 

Detroit will give the ball to young lefty Tarik Skubal, who is 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in five games this season. He doesn’t seem to have shown much improvement from his rookie season last year, when he posted a 5.63 ERA across seven starts. And as bad as the Yankees lineup has looked this season, they have played better against southpaws, batting .255 with an OPS of .749. 

Things won’t get any better for Detroit after Skubal, with Tigers relievers ranking dead-last in the majors among all bullpens with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. With the Yankees’ team total set at just 4.5, don’t hesitate to back the Over.

Covers MLB betting analysis

Cleveland vs Chicago White Sox First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-136)

That’s right it’s Bieber Fever today, which is what we at Covers call one of the most profitable bets since the 2019 MLB season, backing the First 5 innings Under whenever Cleveland ace Shane Bieber toes the rubber. 

The first five innings total has cashed the Under in four of Bieber’s five starts this year. The First Five innings Under also went an incredible 11-1 last year when Bieber won the Cy Young Award, while also hitting at a 70 percent clip in 2019.

Not only is Bieber once again putting together a Cy Young caliber season, pitching to a 2.48 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 36 1-3 innings, but Cleveland is once again one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. 

Cleveland is 28th in the majors with a batting average of .209, and the Tribe have been especially bad in the early going, ranking dead-last in the majors in first 5 innings runs per game at just 1.78.

White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel has been up-and-down this season but the two-time All-Star has the stuff to turn things around and is coming off his best outing of the year, pitching six scoreless innings against the Rangers. Let’s back the Beebs and fade his teammates once again.

Colorado Team Total Under 3.5 (+117) 

When Madison Bumgarner decided to follow the horses to Arizona, he was likely hoping to resurrect his career as well. The former World Series MVP and four-time All-Star has seen his stock steadily go down, and last year in his first season in the desert, he posted an awful 6.48 ERA in nine starts. 

It looked to be more of the same this year as he got roughed up in his first three outings but he has since shown flashes of the old MadBum. He’s fresh off a seven-inning “no-hitter” against the Braves and prior to that, limited the Nationals to two hits and one run through five innings. 

Now Bumgarner gets to face a Rockies team that, per usual, can’t hit away from Coors Field. Colorado is second-worst in the majors in both scoring (2.33 runs per game) and OPS (.547) on the road. Take the Under on the Rockies team total.

Yesterday’s MLB record: 0-3, -3 units
Season MLB betting record: 38-46-2, -11.16 units

MLB betting card for April 30

  • Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-135)
  • Cleveland vs White Sox First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-136)
  • Colorado Team Total Under 3.5 (+117) 

Picks made on 4/30/2021 at 9:15 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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