MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions for May 11

Updated: May 11, 2021

Pablo Lopez has a 2.04 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and has allowed just one earned run over his last four starts. We expect him and opposing starter Madison Bumgarner to shine in Arizona tonight.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

Has Shane Bieber been the remedy for Bieber Fever? Is it time to abandon one of our favorite MLB prop bets or are we going to give Bieber Fever another chance as the Cleveland Indians host the Chicago Cubs?

Plus, what has gotten into Madison Bumgarner? The former World Series MVP looks rejuvenated for the Arizona Diamondbacks and takes the ball tonight against the Miami Marlins. We break down and pick those games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Tuesday, May 11.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Chicago-Cleveland Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-130s)

Bieber has allowed at least two first-five inning runs in each of his last four starts and, as a result, the Under five-inning total is just 1-3 over that stretch. So, it begs the question, has Bieber Fever been cured?

Well, we’re going to lick a few more doorknobs and give one of our favorite MLB prop bets one more chance. It has been clear Beiber hasn’t had his best stuff lately, but opponents are still hitting just .202 off the right-hander and he’s striking out a career-high 14.3 batters per nine innings.

He faces a Chicago Cubs team Tuesday that has some serious boppers in its lineup, but the club ranks 25th when it comes to batting average against right-handed pitchers.

The Cubbies counter with a right-hander of their own in Adbert Alzolay. The 26-year-old has effectively used his slider and sinker to limit opponents to a .174 batting average and pitches to a 0.89 WHIP. He faces a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in batting average and is 23rd in OPS.

We’ll feel ill if we don’t come down with the Fever in this one.

Covers MLB betting analysis

Kwang-Hyun Kim Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

I love any chance to hype up former KBO stars and we get the chance Tuesday as Kwang-Hyun Kim gets the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kim hasn’t been as unhittable as he was in 2020, as he’s finding too much of the plate with his fastball, but he missed the early part of the season with a back injury and could still be ramping up. He has only allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts.

While Kim isn’t known as a strikeout artist, he’s a good candidate to eclipse his strikeout prop in this one. The lefty is striking out more than a batter an inning this season and now faces a Brewers lineup that strikes out at the third-highest rate in baseball, getting punched out 10.2 times per game.

Plus, in two starts against the Brewers last season, Kim allowed just one run on eight hits while striking out nine in 12 innings. We like the former SK Wyverns star to find his K-form in this one.

Miami-Arizona Under 4.5 Five Inning Total (-125)

The Miami Marlins’ Pablo Lopez and the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Madison Bumgarner met in this exact same pitchers’ matchup their last time out back on May 6. The Fish edged the D-backs 3-1 and there is plenty of reason to think this game will be all about the starters once again.

Lopez has quietly been outstanding for the Marlins this season, pitching to a 2.04 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP and he has been particularly dominant over his last four starts, allowing just one earned run in his last 24 innings of work. He faces an Arizona lineup that has had success early this season but is in a bit of a slump, plating just 2.43 runs per game over the last seven contests.

Opposing Lopez is Bumgarner, and I don’t know what has gotten into him. Maybe he got a new horse or something or won his latest rodeo but the guy has found his All-star form. Bumgarner is pitching to a 1.17 ERA, 0.44 WHIP with 25 strikeouts to just two walks over his last four starts. The lefty is also limiting opponents to a .105 batting average over that span and goes against a Marlins lineup that ranks 20th in scoring and 25th in OPS. 

Pitching will be the story early on in this one.

Yesterday’s MLB record: 2-1, 0.93 units
Season MLB betting record: 56-60-3, -5.41 units

MLB betting card for May 11

  • CHC-CLE Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-130)
  • Kwang-Hyun Kim Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
  • MIA-ARI Under 4.5 Five-Inning Total (-125)

Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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