MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions for May 16

Updated: May 16, 2021

While he’s looked like a mere mortal the past few starts, reigning Cy Young winner Shane Bieber has had a strong start to 2021, posting a 2.95 ERA and 85 strikeouts through 55 innings.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

Sundays are always chock full of early MLB betting action, so we got up nice and early to check out the best MLB props and side bets for the day to let you know where the value lies. 

Today, we’re betting some juicy totals as we look at two of the best hitting teams in the majors in the Red Sox and Reds, while also taking one of our favorite wagers when a certain Cleveland pitcher toes the rubber. 

Here are our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Sunday, May 16, 2021.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Red Sox team total Over 5.5 (+110)

Angels starter Jose Quintana is fresh off a strong performance against the Dodgers but has still looked awful this season, pitching to a 9.00 ERA with a 2.14 WHIP through 21 innings across six starts.

Quintana could be in for a world of hurt today against a Red Sox team that leads the majors with an OPS of .772 and is fourth in the majors in scoring with 5.17 runs per game.

The BoSox have also been lighting up lefties like Quintana, batting .283 with an OPS of .797 against southpaws. 

With the Halos bullpen also struggling, ranking 27th in the majors in both ERA (5.30) and WHIP (1.52), don’t hesitate to take the Over on Boston’s team total. 

Covers MLB betting analysis

Reds vs Rockies Over 11.5 (-110)

The Over/Under for this game has been set at a lofty 11.5 but we’re still backing the Over after seeing a push at 11 in a 6-5 Reds win last night. The Reds have slowed down a tad since their ridiculous early-season production at the plate, but they still lead the majors in runs per game (5.35) and are third in OPS (.759).

The Rockies struggle to make contact on the road but rack up runs at the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field, where they average 5.88 runs per game and have an OPS of .792.

Shaky pitching for both teams also suggests that the Over is likely. Cincinnati starter Jeff Hoffman has surrendered 10 earned runs in 10 1-3 innings over his last three starts. While his Rockies counterpart Antonio Senzatela has a 5.97 ERA with an opponent batting average of .301 in seven starts this season. 

The Reds bullpen is also just 26th in the majors with a 5.19 ERA while Rockies relievers rank 29th with an ERA of 5.54. With Colorado 15-5-1 O/U in its last 21 games overall and these teams combining for 15.67 runs per game through the first three contests of this series, back the Over this afternoon. 

Cleveland vs Seattle first five innings Under 3.5 (+100)

That’s right, we’ve got another case of “Bieber Fever” which is what we call one of our favorite wagers over the last few years: betting the first five innings Under whenever Cleveland ace Shane Bieber gets the start.

Bieber won the AL Cy Young Award last year and is 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 85 strikeouts through 55 innings this year. The Beebs will try to recapture his early-season dominance after looking like a mere mortal over his previous three starts.

The Mariners will use an opener today in Robert Dugger but they are well-equipped for a bullpen game as their relievers have pitched to a collective 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Of course, Bieber Fever wouldn’t quite work unless Cleveland’s bats were as brutally ineffective as they have been for the last few years. The Tribe are 28th in the majors in scoring through the first five innings (1.86 runs per game) while ranking 24th with an OPS of .666.

The Mariners are just 27th in the majors with an OPS of .658, and the number drops to .624 at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in Seattle. They also muster just 2.05 runs per game through the first five innings, with that number falling to 1.8 runs per game at home. 

Yesterday’s MLB record: 2-3, -1.05 units
Season MLB betting record: 63-69-4, -7.81 units

MLB betting card for May 16

  • Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 (+110)
  • Reds vs Rockies Over 11.5 (-110)
  • Cleveland vs Seattle First Five Innings Under 3.5 (+100)

Picks made on 5/16/2021 at 9:22 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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