MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions for May 5

Updated: May 5, 2021

Even with the Bieber Fever mini-slump, the Under first-five inning bet is still 15-3 over Shane Bieber’s last 18 starts, and the fact those games went Over hasn’t exactly been Bieber’s fault.

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Uh oh. Bieber Fever has come down with a bit of a cold. Yes, one of our favorite MLB prop bets has hit a bit of a cold streak. The Under first five-inning total has gone Over in two of Shane Bieber’s last three starts. Is Bieber Fever getting cured?

Plus, what’s the best way to bet Shohei Ohtani as he pulls double-duty with the Los Angeles Angels tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays? We break down those picks and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Tuesday, May 4.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Braves-Nationals Over 4.5 Five-Inning Total (-105)

Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried makes his first start since April 13 when he suffered a hamstring strain against the Miami Marlins, but things weren’t going well for Fried before the injury.

The lefty struggled through his first three starts, pitching to an 11.34 ERA and a 2.55 WHIP. That includes giving up five runs on eight hits in two innings against this same Washington Nationals team. And that wasn’t an anomaly for the Nats, they love mashing southpaws.

Washington ranks first in the MLB when it comes to hitting off lefties, with a .305 batting average, and is second with a .869 OPS.

Meanwhile, the Nationals counter with Erick Fedde, who has pitched much better over his last four starts, but the last time he faced the Braves on April 7, he surrendered six runs on six hits in just an inning and two-thirds. 

The Braves, led by Ronald Acuna Jr., have one of the most potent offenses in baseball and have put up 5.5 runs per game over their last eight contests. Bet on the bats being the story early in this one.

Covers MLB betting analysis

Cleveland-Kansas City Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-115)

Yes, Bieber Fever has hit a bit of a slump, going 1-2 in Shane Bieber’s last two starts. But are we hitting the panic button on one of our favorite MLB prop bets? No way. Even with the slump, the Under first-five inning bet is still 15-3 over Bieber’s last 18 starts, and the fact those games went Over hasn’t exactly been Bieber’s fault.

The defending American League Cy Young Award winner is still dealing. He is the first pitcher in major league history to record at least eight strikeouts in 18 consecutive starts. And while his last start wasn’t his best, he still has a 2.76 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.

Bieber has also dominated the Kansas City Royals over the course of his career. He’s allowed just two earned runs on eight hits while striking out 35 in his last 18 1-3 innings against K.C.

It doesn’t really matter who starts for the Royals, considering Cleveland ranks 28th in team batting average, but Brady Singer isn’t bad. The Royals right-hander has a 1.35 ERA and has limited opponents to a .192 batting average over his last four starts.

Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

There is nothing more exciting in baseball right now than games where Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani is just that, a true two-way star. And that is what is expected tonight as Ohtani is slated to start and hit for the Angels against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Ohtani has been nothing short of amazing this season. He is second in the MLB in home runs with nine, sixth in runs batted in, oh and he has a 3.29 ERA and strikes out a ridiculous 15.1 batters per nine innings. And that’s what we’re focusing on today. 

That said, if you find a total bases prop, try the Shohei special and bet the Over on that too. He is 4-6 with two extra-base hits, including a dinger when pulling double-duty.

Back to the strikeouts. Ohtani has absolutely filthy stuff. He can hit 100 miles per hour on the radar gun and mixes that with a splitter that is straight-up unfair. 

Wednesday, he goes up against a free-swinging Rays team that strikes out 10.29 times per game. That is the fourth-most in the Big Leagues. Ohtani has gone Over this number in all three of his starts, while never pitching more than five innings. We’re betting he gets there again.

Yesterday’s MLB record: 1-1, -0.23 units
Season MLB betting record: 47-51-2, -4.24 units

MLB betting card for May 5

  • ATL-WAS Over 4.5 Five-Inning Total (-105)
  • CLE-KC Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-115)
  • Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Picks made on 5/5/2021 at 11:10 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $62.57 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on MLB props?

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