Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

Updated: February 28, 2021

The 63rd annual Grammy Awards are fast approaching after being pushed back from its usual January time slot to March 14.

The 2021 Grammy nominations were announced in the fall and oddsmakers wasted little time getting Grammy odds out. The betting board continues to change, but the biggest names in the music industry like Taylor Swift, Beyonce, and Billie Eilish are nominated for the major awards. 

We’ll break down the favorites along with some live long shots as we check out this year’s Grammy betting odds.

Album of the Year

Nominee Odds (as of February 28)
Folklore – Taylor Swift -188
Future Nostalgia – Dua Lipa +400
Hollywood’s Bleeding – Post Malone +900
Djesse Vol. 3 – Jacob Collier +1,000
Everyday Life – Coldplay +1,000
Chilombo – Jhene Aiko +1,400
Black Pumas – Black Pumas +1,600
Women in Music Pt. III – HAIM +1,600

Odds courtesy of Bet365

The Favorite: Folklore (-188)

It’s little surprise that Folklore is the odds-on favorite to win best album after staying at No. 1 on the US Billboard 200 chart for eight weeks and receiving critical acclaim.

This is T-Swift’s eighth studio album and it might be her best, which is saying a lot when you consider that she has already won Grammys for Album of the Year with 1989 and Fearless.

Folklore represents the latest step in the evolution of Swift’s sound. She has gone from country to pop, and now to a more subdued, indie vibe. 

Live Long Shot: Future Nostalgia (+400)

It’s not often when you can grab a second-favorite at +400 but that’s simply how much people are expecting a Swift victory. That gives plenty of betting value to Dua Lipa’s second album Future Nostalgia, released last March.  

As the name suggests, this album is a blend of modern with old-school dance-pop and disco. At its heart, Future Nostalgia is a pop album, but it has plenty of diverse influences and sounds to give it a distinct feel. 

Record of the Year

Nominee Odds (as of February 28)
Don’t Start Now – Dua Lipa -275
Black Parade – Beyonce  +550
Everything I Wanted – Billie Eilish +900
Savage – Megan Thee Stallion +1,000
Say So – Doja Cat +1,200
Circles – Post Malone +1,200
Colors – Black Pumas +1,800
Rockstar – DaBaby  +2,000

Odds courtesy of Bet365

The Favorite: Don’t Start Now (-275)

The Record of the Year award honors the performing artist (along with the producers, sound engineers, and sound mixers) for a single song. Dua Lipa might be second on the odds board for best album, but she leads the field here at -275. 

“Don’t Start Now” spent six consecutive weeks at No. 1 on the Top 40 charts and has also been nominated for Song of the Year and Best Pop Solo Performance. While it might not have the lyrical strength to win for Song of the Year, its catchy vibe and electric sound make it a strong favorite in this category. 

Live Long Shot: Savage (+1,000)

Megan Thee Stallion’s “Savage (Remix)” featuring Beyonce elevated an already terrific song to the song of the summer (although TikTok might have had something to do with that as well).

This song is fun, catchy, and fresh, with a great sound and tight lyrics. But more than that, it has a sexy, brash, and unapologetic swagger which has helped it become a feminist anthem. And despite the Grammys being notoriously fickle toward hip hop, Beyonce’s inclusion on this track adds a certain level of increased legitimacy.

What better way to answer critics who say the Grammys need to display more diversity than an upset win for “Savage” here?

Song of the Year

Nominee Odds (as of February 28)
Cardigan – Taylor Swift -120
Don’t Start Now – Dua Lipa +250
Black Parade – Beyonce +333
Everything I Wanted – Billie Eilish +1,100
If The World Was Ending – JP Saxe feat. Julia Michaels +1,600
The Box – Roddy Ricch +1,800
I Can’t Breathe – H.E.R +2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet365

The Favorite: Cardigan (-120)

While Record of the Year is based on production and vocal performance, this award is based on songwriting in terms of both lyrics and composition.

So it’s little surprise that T-Swift is at the top of the betting board again, considering the attention she deservedly pulls for her own work when it comes to songwriting. 

Swift has been nominated for Song of the Year four times previously (most recently for “Lover” last year) but has always come up short. This should be the year she takes this award home. 

Live Long Shot: Everything I Wanted (+1,100)

Last year’s big winner was Billie Eilish, who swept all the general field categories for Best Album, Best Record, Best Song, and Best New Artist.

If the Grammy voters don’t have a case of Billie Eilish fatigue after last year, her latest hot single could be a sneaky pick at +1,100 to win this time around.

Unlike last year’s entry “Bad Guy,” her “Everything I Wanted” song is a slower, more introspective and moody track. It’s arguably a better example, however, of Eilish and her brother Finneas O’Connell’s songwriting and lyrical talents. 

Best New Artist

Nominee Odds (as of February 28)
Megan Thee Stallion -110
Doja Cat +163
Phoebe Bridgers +850
Kaytranada +1,700
Noah Cyrus +2,200
D Smoke +3,300
Ingrid Andress +4,500
Chika +6,000

Odds courtesy of Paddy Power

The Favorite: Megan Thee Stallion (-110)

It’s a bit strange to see Megan Thee Stallion here since she really broke through into the mainstream in 2019 with her mixtape Fever and her hit single “Hot Girl Summer.”

But her hot girl summer continued all the way into 2020 as she released her debut studio album Good News and featured on Cardi B’s red-hot track “WAP.”

Megan Thee Stallion might be our bet for live long shot for Song of the Year but she’s a strong favorite to join Dua Lipa and Eilish with a Grammy win in this category.

Live Long Shot: Phoebe Bridgers (+850)

Bridgers might not have the mainstream popularity and cultural influence of Megan Thee Stallion but her 2020 album Punisher is an absolute gem.

Critics loved Bridgers’ second studio album with Metacritic giving it a 90/100 rating and Slate naming it the best album of the year. If the critics are such big fans of Bridgers’ work, don’t be surprised if the recording industry feels the same way. And, let’s be honest, it would be nice to see a winner that doesn’t fit the mold of many other rising stars. 

Where Can I Bet on Grammy Awards Odds?

As a non-sports market, Grammy Awards odds may be more of a niche for sportsbooks. However, many will offer odds on the major categories, with possibly more markets as the event nears. Check out the best sportsbooks available in your area. 

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