Phillies vs Braves MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions April 11

Updated: April 11, 2021

Atlanta struggled at the plate while losing its first four games this season, but is now starting to look again like the team that was second in the majors in runs scored last season.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

We’ve got a busy Sunday of baseball with 14 games on the slate and the final contest on the MLB betting board is an NL East matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves opened their season by getting swept by the Phillies on the road but have won the last two games in this series at home and are installed as -157 MLB betting favorites tonight. 

Here are our best free Phillies vs. Braves picks and predictions for Sunday, April 11, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. 

Phillies vs Braves odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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The line opened at Atlanta -144, with the total at 9. Early action favored the Braves, moving this line to -157. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Phillies vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Matt Moore (0-0, 5.40 ERA): Moore is coming off a start against the Mets where he gave up four hits and two runs while walking four batters before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning. The lefty had mixed results during spring training and pitched last season in Japan, where he posted a 2.65 ERA with Fukuoka of the NPB. 

Drew Smyly (0-0, 3,00 ERA): Smyly looked solid in his first start of the year against the Nationals last week, giving up four runs over six innings but only two of those runs were earned and he also racked up eight strikeouts. The southpaw has bounced around the majors since recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitching for four clubs since 2019.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Phillies: Vince Velasquez RP (Questionable).
Braves: Chris Martin RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Braves are 43-19 in their last 62 home games while the Phillies are 11-27 in their previous 38 contests on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.

Moneyline pick

The Braves began the season with four straight losses, including three in Philadelphia. But they’ve since turned things around and have won four in a row, including the first two contests in this three-game set.

The big difference for the Braves has been their improved play at the plate. They are batting .263 and plating 5.5 runs per game over their last four contests after hitting just .148 and averaging 2.0 runs per game over their first four games of the season.

Given the Braves’ talented lineup and the fact that they ranked near the top of the NL in scoring over the last two seasons, we’re confident that their recent performances are more in line with how they’ll produce the rest of the way.

While it’s difficult to trust the starting pitcher for either team, Smyly was sharper in his first game of the season while Moore struggled with his control. 

Smyly also looked decent in seven starts with the Giants last season, pitching to a 3.42 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP across 26 1-3 innings. With Smyly now almost four years removed from Tommy John surgery he’s beginning to show flashes of the velocity he had prior to that injury. 

With Atlanta 55-21 in its last 76 games as a home fave, take the Braves on the moneyline.

PREDICTION: Atlanta ML (-157)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under pick

We mentioned that we don’t really trust either starter in this one. Moore has only pitched 13 innings in the major leagues since 2019 and in his last two seasons as a rotation pitcher he posted a 6.79 ERA with Texas in 2018 and a 5.52 ERA with San Francisco the previous year.

While Smyly has shown signs of getting his velocity back, he’s still just two years removed from a brutal campaign where he had a 6.26 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP across 25 games for the Rangers and Phillies.

The Braves might have started their season with some ugly performances at the plate but this is a loaded lineup led by dangerous sluggers like Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr. 

Atlanta was second in the majors with 5.62 runs per game last season and upped that number to 6.09 runs per game at home. The Phillies weren’t too far behind, ranking fifth in scoring with 5.10 runs/game.

With the Braves going 15-7-2 O/U in their last 24 games as a home favorite and also going above the total in five of the last six meetings between these NL East rivals in Atlanta, back the Over again. 

PREDICTION: Over 9 (-110)

Phillies vs Braves betting card

  • Atlanta ML (-157)
  • Over 9 (-110)

Picks made on 4/11/2021 at 10:26 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Phillies vs. Braves picks, you could win $21.25 on a $10 bet?

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