Suns vs Warriors NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions May 11

Updated: May 11, 2021

The Suns have been soaring this season, holding down the second seed in the West, as well as the NBA’s second-best ATS mark at 41-26-1.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors continue to battle in a compelling dogfight for play-in seeding that’s taking them down to the season’s final days (just as Adam Silver drew it up).

Tonight’s opponent, the Phoenix Suns, is in their own battle for playoff slots, still with a chance to claim homecourt advantage throughout the postseason.

With both teams having plenty to play for, tonight’s game should make for a competitive NBA betting matchup. Find out who has the edge with our free Suns vs. Warriors pick and predictions for Tuesday, May 11. 

Suns vs Warriors odds

Tuesday, 11 May 2021 10:00 PM

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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The line opened at Phoenix -5.5, with the total at 230.5. Early action shrunk both numbers slightly, to Suns -5 and 230. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Suns at Warriors betting preview


Suns: Cam Johnson SF (Out).
Warriors: Kelly Oubre Jr. SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Eric Paschall PF (Out), Damion Lee SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Suns are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Warriors.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Thanks almost entirely to Steph Curry’s superhuman efforts and Draymond Green’s resurgence as an elite defender and playmaker, the Warriors are headed to the NBA’s play-in tournament. But the Memphis Grizzlies are keeping the utmost pressure on them to avoid the 9-10 game and, thus, single-elimination. 

It’s going to be very difficult for the Warriors to avoid slipping tonight, as they face a highly consistent (and just generally really good) Suns squad that can still catch Utah for the West’s top seed. 

The Suns lost 123-110 to the Lakers Sunday night after Anthony Davis felt urgency for the first time since last October and uncorked his best game of the season on them. Among many things Monty Williams has done well in a possible COY campaign is get his team to bounce back, at a shining 21-5 ATS following an ATS loss.

The Warriors will be on a back-to-back after scoring a tough 119-116 W against Utah last night, in which Curry and Green both played 37 minutes. Having Curry possibly gassed won’t be ideal with uber-irritator Chris Paul marking him all night. 

Furthermore, the Suns can stick Mikal Bridges on Green, busting up the Warriors’ pick-and-roll game by switching a rangy All-Defense contender onto Curry. Containing Curry is an extremely relative term, but Phoenix is a good bet to do so in theory. 

Adding the Suns’ motivation, rest, and matchup advantages to their clearly superior talent, we don’t see them bucking an amazing trend in a bounce-back spot. Shine on. 

PREDICTION: Phoenix -5.0 (-110)

Covers NBA betting analysis

Over/Under pick

The Suns have been just mashing Overs lately. They’ve hit six in a row and are 10-2 to the Over in their past 12 games. 

Phoenix has flexed its defensive edge most of this season, but is scoring in bunches down the stretch, at 119.8 ppg over their last six outings. The Warriors are averaging an identical 119.8 in their last five as well, despite the absences of several backup scorers. 

But don’t get your hopes up thinking this is an auto-shootout. 

The Suns are still playing at the league’s third-slowest pace over their elongated Over run, and we like them to control tempo more so than GSW, the NBA’s fourth-fastest team on the season. 

There’s also the Warriors’ lack of rest to factor in here. They’ll be less apt to try and run-and-gun on tired legs when they’re still the NBA’s fifth-rated defense (with the Suns just behind them in sixth). 

Both these teams can flex on either side of the ball, but the Suns do it much better and should be able to impose their will on this game script, against a total that’s been set fairly high by the two sides’ recent offensive outbursts. Fade the trend. 

PREDICTION: Under 230 (-110)

Prop pick

Stay tuned for an additional prop pick when markets are live! 

Suns vs Warriors betting card

  • Phoenix -5.5 (-110)
  • Under 230 (-110)

Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 10:20 a.m. ET

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