Super Bowl LV Betting Notes

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Updated: January 31, 2021

Jan 31, 2021 – 4:35 PM ET

It’s the greatest sports wagering event of the year. With Super Bowl LV betting now legal in several states, you can expect to see more action on this year’s Big Game than any football game in history – and we’ve got your Super Bowl betting tips covered. Every major sportsbook will serve up hundreds of prop bets to give bettors a veritable buffet of options alongside the standard moneyline, spread and totals options. 

If you’re looking at this year’s major Super Bowl betting trends, the point spread opened with the Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but has since moved to -3 as we inch closer to the championship game. The Chiefs are also -170 on the moneyline, with not much movement expected there between now and Super Bowl kickoff. The total has slipped from 57 down to 56.5.

Not sure where to start? Having trouble narrowing down which props to play? Fret not, betting friend! Here are 55 betting notes sure to give you the direction you need to make the most informed bets ahead of The Big Game: 

Super Bowl LV Betting Notes

1. Like the 54 Super Bowl games before this one, the Chiefs and Buccaneers will open the festivities with a good old-fashioned coin toss. Heads has come up 25 times in Super Bowl history, while tails has come up 29 times (including five of the past seven).

2. Tom Brady will play in his 10th Super Bowl on February 7 – and while “Tom Terrific” might just be the greatest quarterback in the history of the sport, he hasn’t fared well on his first pass of the game in Super Bowls, going just 4 of 9. In fact, he has completed his first pass just once in his past six title games (and saw his first attempt intercepted in his previous Super Bowl appearance two years ago). PROP: Tom Brady’s first pass attempt: COMPLETE (-185), INCOMPLETE OR INTERCEPTED (+145).

3. The Chiefs will likely rely on their two-headed running back monster of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams to move the chains on the ground, and each player has an Over/Under of 3.5 yards on their opening carry. We recommend the Under on both players (Edwards-Helaire: -140, Williams: -120), with the Bucs holding foes to a 3.6 yards-per-carry average.

4. The change to the kickoff spot has led to an inordinate number of touchbacks – and these two teams are among the best at it, with Tampa Bay forcing a touchback 84.3 percent of the time during the season (second-best in the NFL) and the Chiefs ranking fourth at 75.5 percent. PROP: Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback? YES (-305), NO (+230).

5. Will we see Ronald Jones end his stretch of postseason futility when it comes to being involved in the passing game? Jones caught passes in 12 of 14 regular-season games for the Buccaneers, but didn’t have a single reception in either of his two earlier playoff appearances. PROP: Ronald Jones O/U 0.5 receiving yards: OVER (-120), UNDER (-110).

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6. If you win the Super Bowl, the chances are outstanding that you covered, as well. The team that wins the Super Bowl has also gone on to cover the point spread an incredible 46 times against just six non-covers and two pushes. 

7. Looking for some positional props? Wide receivers have produced the first touchdown of the Super Bowl on 24 occasions, or 44.4 percent of the time. Running backs are next with 16 (29.6 percent), followed by defense/special teams with five (9.3 percent), tight ends and quarterbacks with four (7.4 percent apiece), and fullbacks with two (3.7 percent).

8. It will be hard for the Buccaneers to win if they can’t force the Chiefs to punt – and few teams have had success doing that this season, with Kansas City ranked second in the NFL at a 49.5-percent third-down conversion rate. And they’ve ratcheted things up in recent games, with a 58.6-percent success rate in their last three games. PROP: Will Kansas City convert its first third-down opportunity? YES (-120), NO (+100).

9. PROP I LIKE: Will the first play from scrimmage result in a first down? NO (-240). While both teams possess strong offenses, they were merely ordinary on first downs. Kansas City recorded 10+ yards on just 112 of their 492 first downs (22.8 percent), while Tampa Bay had a 21-percent success rate (98 for 466). Based on these numbers, the NO5 pick is a nice profit play.

10. Score first in the Super Bowl, and you’re in the driver’s seat. The team that opens the scoring has gone on to win the title in 36 of the first 54 Super Bowls (66.7 percent), including seven of the previous nine games. PROP: Will the team that scores first win the game? YES (-180), NO (+140).

11. The Chiefs put together a truly awesome offensive season, scoring in every quarter seven different times. That dominance was highlighted by a stretch in which Kansas City scored in each quarter of five consecutive games. The Pats and Eagles both scored in every quarter in Super Bowl XLII. Prior to that, no team had done it since the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 48. PROP: Will the Chiefs score in all four quarters? YES (+110), NO (-150).

12. No team has been better at securing the first down than the Chiefs, who are averaging 25 per game entering the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay is a little further down the list at 22.6, though the averages for both teams over the past three games are slightly closer (Kansas City is at 23.7, while Tampa Bay is at 21.7). PROP: More first downs: CHIEFS (-165), BUCCANEERS (+145).

13. PROP I LIKE: Will the Chiefs have at least one rushing TD? NO (+145). Admittedly, this is a bit of a longshot – but if either team is going to stick to an aerial assault for most of the game, it’s Kansas City. The Chiefs went without a rushing touchdown in seven of their 16 regular-season games in 2020. Only five teams had more zero-rushing TD performances. 

14. Super Bowl participants have saved their best for after the star-studded halftime show in recent years. The second half has produced more points than the first half in 17 of the previous 22 Super Bowls. The first half has been the highest-scoring 30-minute block on four occasions, with one draw (Super Bowl XLVI, when the Patriots and Giants produced 19 points in each half).

15. Gronk might not be the bulldozer of old, but he can still cause opposing teams problems. And that could spell bad news for the Chiefs, who allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in 2020. PROP: Rob Gronkowski total receiving yards (27.5): OVER (-110), UNDER (-110).

16. Brady’s first-quarter struggles in the Super Bowl are well-documented and bettors can take full advantage if that trend continues Sunday. Brady saw his Patriots teams score just three total points in the first quarter of his nine Super Bowl appearances with New England PROP: What will happen first? BUCCANEERS SCORE (+105), BUCCANEERS PUNT (+125).

17. PROP I LIKE: Team with the greater time of possession: CHIEFS (-145): Kansas City is sensational at hanging onto the football for long periods of time. While they ranked in the middle of the pack in time of possession this season, that’s largely due to how quickly they can strike on offense – and they showed off their ball dominance in their Week 12 encounter with Tampa Bay, having possession for more than 36 minutes. They only need 30 minutes and one second on Sunday. 

18. Given both teams’ ball-hawking prowess, the OVER on the total interception tally of 1.5 (+110) is an intriguing play. The Chiefs finished with 16 regular-season interceptions and have added another two in the postseason. Tampa Bay has been even more prolific in this department, with 15 regular-season INTs and another five in the playoffs. There were two INTs in their previous meeting (both from Brady), and the conditions are favorable for the Over to cash again this weekend.

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19. Close matchups have become a trademark of The Big Game, and this year’s edition is no exception. Super Bowl LV will represent the 11th-straight NFL championship game in which the spread sits at five points or less. In fact, the only games with a larger spread this century were in 2008, when Brady and the Patriots were 12-point favorites over the New York Giants, and 2002 when the Pats were 14-point underdogs against the Rams. And we all remember how those two games turned out.

20. Any prop surrounding quarterback rushing yards is pretty much a one-man focus, with Brady not expected to do much on the ground (His O/U is 0.5, so that tells you what the books think of his run prowess). Mahomes, on the other hand, is someone to watch, having registered 11 runs of 10+ yards this season. PROP: Longest QB run: OVER 13.5 (-105), UNDER 13.5 (-125).

21. PROP I LIKE: First team to request coaches challenge: BUCCANEERS (-110). Bruce Arians hasn’t been shy about using replay challenges over the past couple of years, having racked up 20 during the 2019 and 2020 regular seasons. Chiefs counterpart Andy Reid used seven challenges last year, but only one in the 2020 regular season. We like the odds that Arians will be the first to chuck the red flag in the Super Bowl.

22. The majority of Super Bowls feature just two players slingin’ the pigskin but that has changed in recent years, with three of the past seven NFL championship games featuring more than two players attempting at least one pass. Super Bowl LII saw both teams use two pass-throwers, with the Eagles’ Trey Burton and the Patriots’ Julian Edelman posting one attempt each. PROP: Total number of different players to have a passing attempt (2.5): OVER (+130), UNDER (-150).

23. Oddsmakers are going against recent history when it comes to defensive or special teams TDs, and that could mean a sneaky good profit play for bettors. There has been a defensive/special teams score in eight of the past 14 Super Bowls. PROP: Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown? YES (+200), NO (-240).

24. Looking at the two-point props? While the Chiefs went a perfect 3 for 3 on two-point attempts, the Buccaneers were 0 for 2. That said, there has been at least one two-point attempt in eight of the past 11 Super Bowls, with teams going 5 for 9 on those attempts.

25. PROPS I LIKE: YES to the two-point conversion (+195). With the total for this game so high, both teams will be looking to get points any way they can. And while neither side attempted that many two-pointers during the season, the Super Bowl is a different beast – so pull the trigger here and you could earn a tidy profit

26. While some bettors might feel inclined to take a field goal as the final scoring play of the opening half – doesn’t it seem like teams always settle for three points going into the break? – the Super Bowl has bucked that trend, with 13 of the previous 19 editions featuring a TD as the last scoring play of the first half. PROP: Last score of the first half will be: TD (+100), FG/SAFETY (-120).

27. There has been just one overtime game in the history of the Super Bowl, and that occurred just four years ago, when the Patriots rallied to beat the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. PROP: Will there be overtime? YES (+700), NO (-1,300).

28. Ah, the one-yard touchdown – the most exciting three-foot play in professional sports. The Chiefs scored a LOT of touchdowns in 2020, but strangely, only four of their 59 TDs were of the one-yard variety. Tampa Bay was much more about the short score, recording 11 one-yard touchdowns among its 54 total TDs. PROP: Shortest TD: UNDER 1.5 YARDS (-200), OVER 1.5 YARDS (+150).

29. If you’re looking to guess which penalty type will be the first one called, there are two favorites available – and that could mean some nice profit potential. Though they’re nearly even from an odds perspective, there’s a major gap between the number of holding penalties (648) and the frequency of false starts (517). Take the former, and you could be in for a nice payday. PROP: First penalty called: HOLDING (+275), FALSE START (+280).

30. While it shows up as a “neutral site” game in the official records, make no mistake: Tampa Bay has the home-field edge. And that might suit the Kansas City offense just fine. The Chiefs ran a staggering 70.6 offensive plays per game away from Arrowhead Stadium this season, easily the most in the league. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, ran the fourth-fewest offensive plays per game at home (59.2). PROP: Which team will run the most offensive plays: CHIEFS (-120), BUCCANEERS (+100).

31. All hail the underdogs! They’ve covered in six of the past nine Super Bowls, and nine of the previous 13. But the favorites still have the edge overall, having gone 29-23-2 ATS in the Big Game.

32. This game features three of the top five players in receiving touchdowns during the regular season: Kansas City wideout Tyreek Hill (15, 2nd), Tampa Bay superstar Mike Evans (13, 4th) and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (11, 5th). And all three guys are a good bet to reach the end zone in this one, which makes for some intriguing anytime touchdown doubles – including a tempting play where both team’s TD leaders find paydirt. PROP: Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans anytime TDs (+250).

33. What about a combo play featuring Hill and Kelce, who combined to score 60 percent of the Chiefs’ regular-season receiving touchdowns? The dynamic duo scored touchdowns in the same week six times during the 2020 season, though it hasn’t yet happened in the postseason (Hill is still looking for his first playoff TD). Still, this is the anytime TD combo with the lowest odds of any pairing in the Super Bowl – so don’t rule it out by any means. PROP: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce anytime TDs (+160).

34. PROP I LIKE: Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette to score TDs (+375). We know that the Chiefs will probably score a bunch, but the Bucs are no slouches, either – and with Evans having scored at least once in 12 of his 19 games this season, combined with Fournette having racked up six rushing touchdowns in his last eight contests, you could do worse than taking a chance on both players finding the end zone.

35. There’s one area where the Chiefs have a sizeable edge: Interceptions thrown. Brady was picked off 12 times this season, and has thrown at least one INT in four of his previous five Super Bowl appearances. Mahomes, on the other hand, had just six INTs in 2020, and three of those came in one fateful game vs. Miami. Add in the fact that Brady was picked twice in the Week 12 meeting with the Chiefs, and TB throwing the first INT (-140) looks like a good play.

36. You never used to see missed extra points – but since the NFL increased the distance of the kick, these have become more regular occurrences league-wide. Kansas City and Tampa Bay combined to miss a staggering 11 extra-point attempts during the regular season, and have each had a miss in the postseason. This one’s worth a shot! PROP: Will there be a missed extra point: YES (+220), NO (-270).

37. PROP I LIKE: Total Tom Brady touchdown passes: TWO (+200). This might seem low, but we have to consider that there’s a good chance at least one of Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl touchdowns will come on the ground. Brady has thrown for two TDs eight different times this season – easily the most common outcome of 2020 for the future Hall of Famer. You can’t go wrong laying money on both two and three TD passes (+240), but two seems like the more likely landing spot.

38. Nailing a team’s exact Super Bowl point total will give you bragging rights for years – and oddsmakers have offered a glimpse into what they believe are the most likely outcomes for both teams. The lowest odds for the Buccaneers’ exact tally are reserved for 21, 27 or 28 points, each of which come in at +1,200. For Kansas City, the magic numbers are 28, 30 and 31, each of which is installed at +1,200.

39. When deciding on the highest-scoring quarter of the game, you’re pretty much left with three options. Only four times in the first 54 Super Bowls has the opening quarter produced the most points (Super Bowls 8, 15, 31 and 41). The fourth quarter has been the best play to date, coming through 22 times.

40. PROP I LIKE: Highest scoring quarter: FOURTH (+180): Why argue with history? More than 40 percent of all Super Bowl games have seen the fourth quarter produce the most points, and both Tampa Bay (8.5) and Kansas City (7.9) are among the Top-11 teams in fourth-quarter scoring this season.

41. If you like Brady or Mahomes to take home Super Bowl MVP honors, you certainly aren’t alone. Quarterbacks are responsible for 30 of the 54 MVP awards, easily outdistancing the field. Running backs (seven) and wide receivers (seven) are next in line, followed by linebackers (four). No other position has produced more than two Super Bowl MVP winners.

42. PROP I LIKE: Super Bowl MVP: Travis Kelce (+1,100). While any non-quarterback is considered a longshot for the MVP award (Mahomes leads the way at -110, with Brady at +200), Kelce is the best option of the bunch. He’s the biggest threat of any rusher or receiver in this game (aside from maybe Tyreek Hill), and with no tight end ever having won the award, he might get a bump from the voting contingent for the history angle alone. 

43. If you’re leading at the half, your chances of winning the Super Bowl are great. Of the 49 Super Bowls in which one team lead going into the break, that team has gone on to win 38 times (77.6 percent).

44. PROP I LIKE: CHIEFS-CHIEFS (+250) OR BUCCANEERS (+550) 1ST HALF-2ND HALF RESULT. Rather than lean on the moneyline here, why not increase your profit potential and double down on the team you think will win? Given how often the team leading at halftime goes on to win (and the fact that only five Super Bowls have been tied at the break), this is one of the lower-risk, positive-odds plays you’ll find.

45. Deciding on the first turnover of Super Bowl LV should be a snap. The teams have combined for 23 total interceptions on the season, including playoffs (and yes, Chad Henne and Sammy Watkins INTs count here). On the flip side, the Chiefs and Bucs have recorded just 10 lost fumbles combined in their 37 games this season – and only one in the postseason. PROP: First turnover: INTERCEPTION (-170), FUMBLE (+150).

46. So now that we’ve established that we’re far more likely to see an INT than a lost fumble, we can connect the dots to another strong prop play. Brady has 15 interceptions in 19 games. Mahomes has seven INTs in 17 games. You can see where I’m going with this. PROP: Player with first turnover: TOM BRADY (+200).

47. PROP I LIKE: Chiefs quarters won: TWO (+105). How’s this for a trend you can trust? The Chiefs won 32 of the 65 quarters they played in the regular season (including an overtime victory over the L.A. Chargers in Week 2), and have a 4-4 quarter record so far in the postseason. In other words, Kansas City has won an average of 2.03 quarters in its 18 games played this season.

48. There are plenty of “Who Will Have More X” odds available, but one stands out. Hill has been sensational so far in the postseason, having racked up 282 receiving yards in wins over Cleveland and Buffalo. And let’s not forget how he performed against Tampa Bay in Week 12 (269 receiving yards, 3 TDs). Even with a slight handicap, he’s more than capable of lapping Chris Godwin in the yards department. PROP: More receiving yards: HILL -10.5 (-110), GODWIN +10.5 (-110).

49. Big Super Bowl leads have been uncommon for nearly two decades now. Teams have led by 15 or more points in just four of the previous 17 NFL championships, most recently Atlanta’s ill-fated 28-3 edge in Super Bowl 51. PROP: Largest lead of the game by either team (14.5): OVER (-110), UNDER (-110).

50. It’s time for some kuh-razy cross-over bets! And we’ll start with Nets superstar Kevin Durant, who has been terrific in his first season in Brooklyn. Durant gets a slight nod in this prop bet due to Darrel Williams having to share work with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I also don’t expect Kansas City to run all that much against a formidable Tampa Bay defense. PROP: KEVIN DURANT POINTS/REBOUNDS -6.5 (-110), DARREL WILLIAMS RUSHING YARDS +6.5 (-110).

51. Another intriguing cross-over play: Julius Randle’s made free throws vs. Tampa Bay’s 1Q point total. Randle has seen a career resurgence with the Knicks, averaging well over a double-double while making nearly 5.5 free throws per game. The handicap knocks that total down to roughly four – so the question is, do you think Brady can snap out of his first-quarter Super Bowl slump? PROP: JULIUS RANDLE MADE FREE THROWS -1.5 (-110), TAMPA BAY 1ST-QUARTER POINTS +1.5 (-110).

52. This final cross-over is for all the Premier League fans out there. Liverpool and Manchester City tangle on Super Bowl Sunday in a matchup between the last two EPL champions – but while Man City have surged to the top of the table, Liverpool are struggling in their quest to repeat. These teams have averaged three goals in their last five matchups. Will it happen again? And will that be enough to win this prop? PROP: MAN CITY/LIVERPOOL GOALS (+100), BUCCANEERS TDS (-120).

53. Are we saving the best for last? That’s up to you to decide. But if you’re thinking about taking a shot on an exact score prop, 27 and 31 have been the winning tallies for more Super Bowl champions (five) than any other. PROPS: Final score for Buccaneers: 27 (+1,200) or 31 (+1,400); final score for Chiefs: 27 (+1,400) or 31 (+1,200).

54: On the flip side, the losing team has scored either 10 or 17 points a record eight times each. PROPS: Final score for Buccaneers: 10 (+3,000) or 17 (+2,000); final score for Chiefs: 10 (+3,500) or 17 (+2,200).

55: PROP I LIKE: Chiefs margin of victory: 1-6 points (+290). Both teams deserve to be here, and that Week 12 showdown gave us a great idea of just how little separates these rosters. The Chiefs are certainly the superior offensive team, but the Buccaneers’ defense is formidable, and should be able to keep KC from pulling away. I like the Chiefs to prevail, but there’s a good chance this one will go down to the wire.

Where Can I Bet on the Super Bowl?

You can bet on Super Bowl odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of Super Bowl prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top super bowl betting sites in your area.

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