Trail Blazers vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions February 14

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Updated: February 14, 2021

Dallas big man Kristaps Porzingis has been on fire in February, upping his scoring to 23.4 points per game, while shooting close to 50 percent from the field and 45 percent from three.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

After struggling to find their identity through the first two months of the NBA betting season, the Dallas Mavericks finally look like their high-scoring selves heading into Sunday’s clash with the Portland Trail Blazers.

Dallas, which is 4.5-point home chalk Sunday, is riding a four-game winning streak on the back of its offense (1-3 ATS). It bumps into a Portland squad on a three-game tear (3-0 ATS), but the Blazers have struggled to defend this season.

Check out our NBA free picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks on February 14.

Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks betting preview

Injuries

Trail Blazers: C.J. McCollum G (Out), Jusuf Nurkic F (Out), Rodney Hood G (Questionable), Zach Collins C (Out).
Mavericks: None to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Blazers and Mavericks have gone Over the total in each of their last five meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks.

The Mavericks opened as short as 3-point home chalk at select sportsbooks but there was a major market mark to -4 before the spread jumped to -4.5. It has started creeping up to Dallas -5 at some books. The total opened at 236.5 points and didn’t take long to climb as high as 239 with some operators before shifting back to below the opening line at 236. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Mavericks have won four straight – and five of their last six – since February 3, averaging 126.7 points on nearly 49 percent shooting in that span. It’s a return to form for Dallas, which ranked third in the NBA in scoring last season (117 ppg) but started the 2020-21 campaign posting only 108.7 points per contest.

The big catalyst for this scoring surge is the 3-point shooting. The Mavs buried New Orleans under 25-of-45 3-point shooting in Friday’s 143-130 victory and has totaled 105 triples made (on 251 attempts) in those past six outings—almost 42 percent success from beyond the arc.

Dallas gets to keep that hot hand at home versus a Blazers defense that allows hosts to knock down an average of 13.8 3-point makes per contest. The last time Portland visited a team this dangerous from distance, it watched the Milwaukee Bucks hit 21 of 42 3-point looks in a 134-106 blowout loss in Wisconsin on February 1.

The Blazers’ current three-game winning run has been built at home versus visiting Eastern teams and featured two opponents ranked in the Bottom 5 in scoring average (Cleveland and Orlando). Portland gives up almost 116 points per road stop and is still missing plenty of offensive firepower to counteract those defensive shortcomings, with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic still sidelined with injuries.

PREDICTION: Dallas -4.5 (-110)

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Over/Under pick

For those that love scoring (and who doesn’t?), Sunday’s shootout between the Blazers and Mavericks is a Valentine’s Day gift just for you. Not only do we get a showdown between two of the top guards in the league (and MVP candidates) in Damian Lillard vs. Luka Doncic, we get also have two of the worst defenses in the Association in action.

Much like last year’s life in the Bubble, Dallas is all about those buckets and not so much about the defense. This doomed the Mavs when they started the 2020-21 schedule cold, but they’ve been able to overcome that defensive disability thanks to the jolt in scoring this month.

The Mavericks give up more than 114 points per game on the season (24th) and have really given up on stopping anyone during this six-game ride, allowing foes to hang 127.3 points on almost 51 percent shooting.

We’ve touched on Portland’s poor defense above and much like Dallas, the Blazers do try to offset rotten defending with an aggressive offense. The last time these Western Conference foes met, Lillard went HAM on the Mavs, scoring 61 points with nine 3-pointers in a 134-131 Portland win in the Bubble. And while he did have McCollum and Nurkic on the floor in that game, they combined for just 14 total points.

That last matchup blew a 240-point total out of the water and I expect another easy Over payday on Valentine’s Day, with the Mavs and Blazers topping the number in each of their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Over 236 (-110)

Player prop pick

Another key reason why Dallas has been dominant on offense this month: Kristaps Porzingis.

His scoring has jumped to 23.4 points per game in February (up from 18.6 in January) while shooting close to 50 percent from the field and 45 percent from outside. Porzingis torched the Pelicans for 36 points on Friday night—matching his scoring tally from the last time he faced Portland back in August.

The Trail Blazers are missing bodies inside with Nurkic and Zach Collins sidelined, and that’s led to foes grabbing 46.6 rebounds per game (24th) and 13.8 second-chance points a contest (23rd). The Mavericks versatile center has also been a force on the glass in February, pulling down 8.6 boards per game and recording double figures in rebounds in four of seven overall showings.

Doncic and the Unicorn will make Portland big Enes Kanter look lost on Sunday, especially when it comes to the Mavs’ potent pick-and-roll, which ranks among the most efficient in the league and has Porzingis upping his assists to two a game this month.

PREDICTION: Kristaps Porzingis Over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-107)

Trail Blazers vs Mavericks betting card

  • Dallas -4.5 (-110)
  • Over 236 (-110)
  • Kristaps Porzingis Over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-107)

NBA parlays

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