UFC 263 Edwards vs Diaz Picks and Predictions

Updated: June 8, 2021

Leon Edwards hasn’t lost since 2015 and was riding an eight-fight winning streak before a no-contest decision against Belal Muhammad in March. He enters as a huge -590 favorite against MMA legend Nate Diaz. Find out who we like for this UFC 263 fight.

Posted: Jun 8, 2021 3:06 PM ET Updated: Jun 8, 2021 3:06 PM ET

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz is on the main card for UFC 263 betting on June 12, 2021

This should be a terrific five-round battle between the No. 3-ranked welterweight in Edwards and one of the most entertaining fighters in MMA history in Diaz.

UFC betting odds have Edwards installed as a massive -590 favorite while Diaz comes back at +410.

Here are our best free Edwards vs. Diaz picks and predictions for UFC 263 on Saturday, June 12 from the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Edwards vs Diaz fight odds

Method of Victory Edwards Diaz
Win Outright -590 +410
Win by KO/TKO +145 +1,100
Win by Points +125 +1,000
Win by Submission +1,500 +1,000
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 8, 2021.

Edwards vs Diaz betting preview

Leon “Rocky” Edwards is fresh off a no-contest bout against Belal Muhammad in March when an accidental eye poke from Edwards ended the fight. Edwards had looked sharp before that disappointing finish, despite having not fought in 20 months.

Prior to that no contest, Edwards was riding an eight-fight winning streak. His previous victory came against Rafael dos Anjos while his last loss was against current champ Kamaru Usman, all the way back in 2015.

The 29-year-old is a very well-rounded fighter who combines good kickboxing with solid wrestling technique and excellent clinch-work.

Diaz, on the other, is an MMA legend who has been competing in the UFC since 2007 and holds the promotion record for post-fight award bonuses with 15. In his last fight, he lost the symbolic BMF title to Jorge Masvidal in November 2019 after doctors stopped the fight after the second round due to a gash above Diaz’s eye.

With a second-degree black belt in BJJ, Diaz is an excellent grappler with 11 career wins by submission. But he’s more renowned for his ability to wage all-out war with his crisp boxing and volume striking, including the Diaz brothers’ trademark “Stockton Slap.”

Covers UFC 263 Betting Analysis

Edwards vs Diaz tale of the tape

Leon Edwards   Nate Diaz
29 Age 36
6-foot-2 Height 6-foot-0
170 lbs Weight 170 lbs
74 inches Reach 76 inches
18-3 (6 KO) Record 21-12 (4 KO)

Edwards vs Diaz UFC predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Leon Edwards by points (+125) – Diaz is as tough as a two-dollar steak and isn’t likely to get finished. He’s only been stopped within the distance twice in the last 15 years and his TKO loss to Masvidal was due to a doctor’s stoppage. If an explosive striker like Conor McGregor couldn’t knock out Diaz in two bouts, I don’t see Edwards doing it on Saturday.

Edwards is smack-dab in the middle of his prime, however, and is the better technical fighter virtually across the board — he rarely makes mistakes. And while Edwards has been criticized for recent inactivity, at least he fought in March (even with that bout ending early), while Diaz has only fought twice in the last 55 months.

With seven of Edwards’ last nine wins coming by decision, look for him to outpoint Diaz.

Where can I bet on UFC odds?

Most online sportsbooks and casinos offer bets on UFC odds and props. While odds to win usually come out as soon as a fight is announced, prop bets become more readily available closer to an event. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what UFC bets they have available.

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