Usman vs Masvidal 2 Picks and Predictions

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Updated: April 16, 2021

Kamaru Usman dominated Jorge Masvidal in their first fight and will look to do the same as he makes his fourth title defense.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal is the main event for UFC 261 betting on April 24 from the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.

Usman will make his fourth defense of the welterweight title as he looks to emphatically prove that his win over Masvidal last summer had little to do with the challenger’s lack of preparation after replacing Gilbert Burns on short notice. 

UFC betting lines have Usman as a significant -400 favorite for the rematch while Masvidal comes back at +310.

Here are our best free Usman vs. Masvidal 2 picks and predictions at UFC 261.

Usman vs Masvidal 2 fight odds

Method of Victory Kamaru Usman Jorge Masvidal
Win Outright -400 +310
Win by KO/TKO +240 +500
Win by Points +100 +1,300
Win by Submission +1,300 +1,700
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Usman vs Masvidal 2 betting preview

Kamaru Usman enters UFC 261 on a 17-fight winning streak and is a perfect 13-0 in the octagon. He’s fresh off his third successful title defense after knocking out Gilbert Burns in February. 

The “Nigerian Nightmare” began his career as a wrestling specialist and cardio machine but has developed into an impressive striker as well.

Covers UFC 261 Betting Analysis

The last time Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal entered the octagon was last July when he lost via unanimous decision to Usman. The BMF came into that fight after three consecutive knockout wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz, and accepted the title bout less than a week out. 

The 36-year-old is 35-14 in his MMA career and has grown from a journeyman brawler to one of the most highly-respected and dangerous strikers in the UFC.

Usman vs Masvidal 2 tale of the tape

Kamaru Usman   Jorge Masvidal
33 Age 36
6-foot Height 5-foot-11
170 lbs Weight 170 lbs
76 inches Reach 74 inches
18-1-0 (8 KO) Record 35-14-0 (16 KO)

Usman vs Masvidal 2 UFC predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Usman (-400) – It’s wild that Masvidal opened as a +200 underdog for the first fight against Usman, after losing an exhausting 22 pounds over six days, but is +310 for the rematch with a full training camp and a more gradual weight cut. 

But that’s simply how badly the challenger was dominated last year, with Usman winning every round according to two judges, with the third giving him a score of 49-46. 

While Masvidal should have more energy thanks to a less brutal weight cut, he still doesn’t have the defensive wrestling to handle Usman. 

Usman is simply dominant when it comes to takedowns, top control and clinch work, and those are areas that Masvidal hasn’t improved at even after losing a decision to high-end grappler Demian Maia in 2017.

While Masvidal was able to keep that fight with Maia close thanks to his striking advantage, Usman’s kickboxing is much closer to Gamebred’s level while his pressure should force the challenger on the back foot. 

It might be another snoozer with Usman leaning on and foot-stomping Masvidal for much of the bout, but the champ should come out on top once again. 

PREDICTION: Usman to win by points (-110) – Usman has won two of his last three fights by TKO but that was against a dangerous grappler in Burns and a high-end wrestler in Colby Covington. 

Often when two wrestling specialists face off the fight stays standing up, but with Usman matching up against an excellent striker in Masvidal he would be wise not to engage him too much on the feet. 

Although Usman has vowed to finish Masvidal, I’m not buying it. With nine of Usman’s last 12 wins coming by points, look for him to use his superior cardio and wrestling to win by decision. 

PREDICTION: Fight to go the distance – Yes (-172) – Four of Usman’s last six fights have gone the full 25 minutes and while Masvidal might be best known for his incredible seven-second knockout of Ben Askren, his resume is actually filled with decisions. 

Of Masvidal’s last 26 fights going all the way back to 2010, 19 went the distance. If you’re looking to make a bet on the total number of rounds, going the distance is the play but with the juice on that wager, you’re better off backing Usman to win by points. 

Where can I bet on UFC odds?

Most online sportsbooks and casinos offer bets on UFC odds and props. While odds to win usually come out as soon as a fight is announced, prop bets become more readily available closer to an event. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what UFC bets they have available.


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