Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks and Predictions

Updated: February 3, 2021

Webb Simpson (+1,600) won this event last year, and both his price and current form look right for us to feel confident backing him for a repeat.

Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

While most of the betting public will be fixated on Super Bowl LV this weekend, we still have golf action – and there are plenty of intriguing PGA odds at this week’s event.

The hilariously-named Waste Management Phoenix Open kicks off Thursday at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course, with a solid field looking to end the tour’s West Coast swing with a nice payday. There are several big names looking to take advantage of a short course, with Spanish sensation Jon Rahm leading the way.

We break down the field and course with our Waste Management Phoenix Open picks and predictions.

TPC Scottsdale Betting Stats that Matter

The old adage suggests that players “drive for show and putt for dough”, but perfecting the first of those skills will go a long way (pun intended) toward seeing success in the desert. This course is more elevated than most on tour, which leads to an average driving distance more than 10 yards higher than the tour average. The rough is also much friendlier, so wayward drives aren’t punished.
Given these conditions, SG: Off-the-Tee will loom large this week – as will Driving Accuracy, despite what we mention above. This course has water hazards in play on six holes and a whopping 70 bunkers littering the course, so while the rough might not ruin your day, multiple sand shots certainly could. Players who excel on Bermudagrass will also have an edge at this 7,261-hole par-71.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Outright Winner Bets

Rahm is the oddsmakers’ choice, coming in at +650 as he looks to continue a red-hot stretch in which he has recorded four straight Top-7 finishes. Hot on his heels is Justin Thomas (+800), who will be making his first appearance since Jan. 10, but has finished inside the Top 12 in all six of his appearances this season. Rory McIlroy is next at +1,000, followed by Xander Schauffele (+1,100) and defending champion Webb Simpson (+1,600). 

Who will win the Waste Management Phoenix Open? Here’s our best guess:

Webb Simpson (+1,600)

A successful title defense on the PGA Tour is a rare occurrence – but if anyone can pull it off, it’s this guy. Simpson rolled to victory after a slow start last year, carding a blistering 63-64 in the middle rounds en route to a 17-under score and a playoff triumph over Tony Finau. Simpson also had a second-place result here in 2017, and has finished in the Top 10 five times in his 10 lifetime appearances. He’s one of the top all-around players on tour (1.586 SG: Total, 15th), and should contend again in 2021.

Gary Woodland (+5,000)

We’re rolling with another former winner here, though his chances of winning based on current form are admittedly far smaller. Woodland is having a rough start to the 2020-21 campaign, but he did win this tournament in 2018 and followed that up with a seventh-place showing in 2019 that was derailed by a final-round 72. Woodland’s driving accuracy has been abysmal, but this course shouldn’t punish him nearly as much (provided he doesn’t hit the hazards) and he has the short game to compete.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Matchup Predictions

Bubba Watson Over Brooks Koepka (-110)

We liked Bubba at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, but the South Course chewed him up and spat him out en route to a missed cut. We’re going back to the well, with Bubba’s game (putter aside) looking sensational so far this season: he’s 5th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 9th in SG: Approach and 3rd in SG: Tee-to-Green. He has also finished fourth and third here, respectively, the past two years and has four Top-4 results in his last seven visits. He should win this matchup comfortably. 

Xander Schauffele Over Rory McIlroy (-110)

You’re always taking a risk by fading McIlroy in a matchup prop. The guy can go off on any course at any time, and his No. 2 ranking in SG: Off-the-Tee gives him a sizable edge on this course. That said, Schauffele has been playing out of his mind, with four top-fives in six tournaments this season. He ranks inside the Top-25 in every major Strokes Gained metric aside from Off-the-Tee (where he’s 36th), and ranks second in SG: Total at 2.589. He has one of the most complete games in golf.

Farmers Insurance Open Prop Bets

Jon Rahm Top-10 Result (-175)

The odds between this play and Rahm’s Top-5 prop (+180) might compel some bettors to head to the latter, but we’re hesitant. Sure, Rahm has been a force over the past four tournaments, but this is one of the more competitive fields he’ll have faced since the Masters. And there’s one stat that sticks out for us: Sand Save Percentage, where Rahm ranks outside the Top 200 for the season. This course has a lot of bunkers, and all it will take is one or two sandy misfires for Rahm to miss out on that Top-5 window.

Harris English Top-20 Result (+100)

Wow. You shoot an opening-round 79 in the previous tournament, and oddsmakers are suddenly not returning your phone calls. Sure, English isn’t in peak form at this point, but this is still the same player who won the Tournament of Champions last month and ranks third in the FedExCup standings. His SG: Approach number could use some work, but he’s otherwise solid and finished 16th at this tournament last year. This feels like one of the safer double-your-money opportunities this week.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Card

  • Webb Simpson Outright (+1,600)
  • Gary Woodland Outright (+5,000)
  • Bubba Watson Over Brooks Koepka (-110)
  • Xander Schauffele Over Rory McIlroy (-110)
  • Jon Rahm Top-5 Result (+180)
  • Harris English Top-20 Result (+100)

Where Can I Bet on the PGA?

You can bet on PGA odds at many online and casino sportsbooks, including PGA outrights, matchup bets, and other golf props. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on PGA odds in your area.

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