Yankees vs Indians MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions April 25

Updated: April 25, 2021

Aroldis Chapman has allowed just two hits — with 17 strikeouts — over seven innings this year, headlining a Yankees bullpen that has the best ERA in all of baseball.

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A pair of underachievers will conclude a four-game set Sunday afternoon as the New York Yankees take on the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field.

The Yankees have caught fire and look to crawl out of the AL East basement after taking the series’ first three games and four of their last five. Last night’s 3-1 loss sent Cleveland to its fourth straight loss.

MLB betting lines have the Yankees as a -131 road favorite with the total opening at 8 and slightly shaded to the Over.

Here are our free picks and predictions for New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians for Sunday, April 25 (1:10 p.m. ET).

Yankees vs Indians odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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The line opened at Yankees -125/Cleveland +105, with the total at 8. Early action favored the Bronx Bombers, with the line sliding to Yankees -131/Cleveland +109. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!

Check out the full line movement for this game

Yankees vs Indians betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jameson Taillon (0-1, 5.40 ERA): The Yankees pitcher has been a mixed bag this year but is coming off his best start of the season, scattering four hits and one run with five strikeouts across five innings against the Braves. The command has also been near perfect (two walks in 13 1-2 innings), which is impressive as Taillon didn’t pitch in 2020 and had just 37 innings in 2019. He’s gotten his pitch count up to 80 and is better than his 5.40 ERA indicates.

Triston McKenzie (0-0, 3.55 ERA): It’s all or nothing with the young Cleveland right-hander. The 23-year-old pitcher has put-away stuff with his curveball and slider but control issues have become a problem. Over his 12 2-3 innings of work, the right-hander has 18 punchouts but also 10 walks. His line-drive percentage is 15 percent above league average and his fastball is 2 mph slower than last year.


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Key injuries

Yankees: Miguel Andujar IF (Out), Zack Britton RP (Out), Luke Voit 1B (Out).
Indians: No key injuries.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Cleveland is 0-5 in its last five games as a home underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Indians.

Moneyline pick

Taillon has thrown just 50 innings since 2019 but the former second-overall pick is showing flashes of his talent this season. Excluding his start against the Blue Jays two turns ago, Taillon has a 2.93 ERA with a 12:1 K/BB ratio. Now the starter faces a Cleveland offense that has the third-lowest run per game mark in the A.L.

Over the last seven days, the Tribe is hitting just .211. However, this is an improvement on its season mark of .207, which ranks dead last in all of baseball. Cleveland has dropped six of its last seven games and has managed just seven runs over the series’ first three games.

Another advantage that New York has is its bullpen. Aroldis Chapman has come back and been unstoppable, allowing just two hits over seven innings while striking out 17. With Taillon not likely to go deep, the Bombers will have to lean on their relievers, who have the best ERA in all of baseball.

The Yankees’ bats have been quiet for most of the season but it’s just a matter of time before they find their stride. McKenzie has a few red flags that could prove beneficial for New York, including a 2 mph dip in fastball velocity and an increase in line drives allowed and barrelled balls—both well above league averages.

Give us the away team on the moneyline as we think the Yanks’ potent offense can get on track against McKenzie and shut down the Tribe with baseball’s best bullpen.

PREDICTION: New York (-131)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under pick

Combined, both clubs are 14-23 O/U on the year as a combination of stellar pitching and ice-cold bats have made Sunday’s combatants some of the better Under teams in baseball.

Taillon is 2-1 to the Under in his three starts and with his low walk rate, her should keep himself out of unneeded trouble. Knowing that he will likely turn things over to the best bullpen is the MLB also has us leaning on the Under.

Not to be outdone, the Cleveland bullpen has been a Top-5 unit this year too, holding a 3.08 ERA. If things get silly with either starter early, both sides will not hesitate to get five solid innings out of their relievers. With Bieber and Cole going yesterday, the boys of the bullpen should be plenty rested for Sunday.

As much as we think the Yankees could have a coming-out party against McKenzie, the truth is that this team is slashing .210/.304./.350 with a .293 wOBA. That ranks as the 29th-worst offense, better than only Cleveland. Statistically, these are the two worst offenses in all of baseball.

It could be an “us” thing, but taking Unders in baseball doesn’t seem as dirty as other sports. Cheering for pitching and great defense in baseball makes for an enjoyable betting experience. We’d stay away from the F5 Under but have no qualms about the full-game total.

PREDICTION: Under 8 (-105)

Yankees vs Indians betting card

  • New York (-131)
  • Under 8 (-105)

Picks made on 4/25/2021 at 8:20 a.m. ET

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